Summary: Last week (Jan 27) Brazil exported 1.14 MMT of corn, down 67,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 159,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine are estimated to be 900,000 MT. US corn exports are estimated to be 690,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the local marketing year, are 50.35 MMT vs 20.81 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” rose 1.35 MMT this past week. Ship lineup data indicates that 5.48 MMT could be shipped in January. Last year’s January shipments were 2.18 MMT but official SESEX exports were 2.75 MMT. There were 1.09 MMT scheduled to be shipped in February. USDA’s January WASDE projection of Brazil’s exports was 46.5 MMT, up 2.0 MMT from the previous month and more than double last year’s 21.03 MMT.
As of Jan 27, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 50.35 MMT. That is up 1.35 MMT from the previous week, and is 142% MORE than a year ago, and the largest figure for this date (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 121%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 3.16 MMT vs just 595,000 MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments nearly 4 MMT above the USDA’s projection and there’s still four weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 108.3% of projected exports vs last year’s 99.0% and the 5-year average ratio of 99.9% (range 97.0%-101.7%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 50.36 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 5.48 MMT scheduled to be shipped in January and 1.09 MMT scheduled for February.