Summary: Last week (Feb 03) Brazil exported 979,000 MT of corn, down 162,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 202,000 MT. Shipments from Ukraine were 731,000 MT. US corn exports were 480,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the local marketing year, are 49.20 MMT vs 20.80 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” declined 1.15 MMT this past week (due to a number of vessels “scheduled to arrive” dropping out of the lineup). Ship lineup data indicates that 2.43 MMT could be shipped in February. Last year’s February shipments were 2504,000 MT but official SESEX exports were 773,000 MT. USDA’s January WASDE projection of Brazil’s exports was 46.5 MMT, up 2.0 MMT from the previous month and more than double last year’s 21.03 MMT. ARC expects final exports to be 49 MMT – – 2.5 MMT more than USDA’s projection.
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As of Feb 03, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 49.20 MMT. That is down 1.15 MMT from the previous week, but it is 137% MORE than a year ago, and the largest figure for this date (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 121%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 2.18 MMT vs just 304,000 MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments over 2.5 MMT above the USDA’s projection and there’s still four weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 105.8% of projected exports vs last year’s 99.0% and the 5-year average ratio of 100.2% (range 97.0%-102.1%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 49.13 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 2.44 MMT scheduled to be shipped in February.
