** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 2-5 cents higher, corn 1-2 cents higher, with wheat 2-3 cents higher.
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are firm as the Argentine drought deepens with limited rains over the next 10 days. However, concern over Trump proposed tariffs on steel/aluminum is causing anxiety over potential US ag trade retaliation. A host of nations on the weekend offered to retaliate against the US steel tariffs including China, who mentioned US beef/crops on their targeted list. Moreover, the tariffs are going to make resolving NAFTA issues far more difficult with mid March meetings planned. Traders will have to balance declining South American crop potential against the potential that US ag could be caught in rising global trade tensions.
**Jan 1-March 18 % of Normal Rainfall:
Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money is; short 61,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 6,000), long 59,000 corn (up 40,000), long 147,000 soybeans (up 48,000), short 9,000 soyoil (down 18,000), and long 106,000 contracts of meal (up 21,000). Funds are less long corn, but holding a record net long soymeal position.
** US Plains Weather Pattern Discussion: Dryness is expected across the Central US Plains with warming temps for the next 7-8 days. The EU model offers a hint of better rains across the eastern third of Kansas after March 12th. High temps will range from the 70’s to the mid 40’s.
** 15 Day North American Rainfall Anomaly: C & S Plains Remain Parched!
** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in agreement that a continued warm/dry weather pattern will persist across Argentina. There is no evidence of a pattern change which would offer improved rains to stabilize crop yields into March 14th. The attached graphic is the EU weather model’s forecast for rains over the next 10 days. We have circled the crop areas of Argentina that look to be in a dry trend. ARC notes that the GFS model offered a chance of .5-2.00” of Argy rain in the 11-15 day period. This rain is not confirmed by the EU or GFS Ensemble Models and our confidence in such rain is low. High temps look to range from the 80’s to mid 90’s. Note that RDGS in Southern Brazil will be included in the above arid forecast.
Near to above normal rain will continue across N and C Brazil. The rains will slow the 1st crop harvest and the pace of winter corn seeding. Brazil’s CONAB will be out with updated crop estimates this week. The USDA March Crop Report is released on Thursday.
** 10 Day EU Model Projected Rainfall for South America: Dry Across Argentina!
** Near to Above Normal Argentine Temps on Dry Soils:
