** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher, corn steady to 1 cent higher with wheat 1 lower to 1 cent higher
** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: Happy Easter! Opening week calls are mixed as the aftereffects of Thursday’s USDA report trade around the world. China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange traded huge volume of meal on Friday with 4.3 Mil lots changing hands and prices $1-3/MT higher than Chicago’s Thursday close. End users were short bought on spring and early summer meal needs and were active buyers. Chinese corn values did not follow meal and settled mixed. European and other world markets were closed for Easter.
There were showers across Argentina on the long weekend, most totals were less than .6” with 2 stations reporting totals over 1.00”. The forecast offers better chances for Argy rain starting around April 7th and continuing in the 8-15 day period. Near normal rain falls across the winter corn areas of Brazil.
Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money is; short 78,000 contracts of Chi wheat (up 22,000), long 117,000 corn (down 96,000), long 184,000 beans (down 11,000), short 36,000 soyoil (up 11,000) and long 102,000 meal (up 3,000).
** Central US Weather Pattern Discussion: Rain/snow/cold occurred across the Central US on the long holiday weekend. Lows were in the single digits across the N Plains and the lower 20’s into W Kansas and the Northern Midwest.
The major forecast models offer a progressive spring weather pattern with warming hinted at in the 11-15 day period. Limited spring planting will occur over the next 10-12 days with temps too cold and bouts of rain/snow expected into April 12th. 3 spring storm systems are expected over the next 14 days for the Midwest, but none of them appear to be far enough west to produce needed moisture for the drought stricken Western Plains. Each system looks capable of producing .25-1.00” across the Midwest with totals for the Mid-South less than what was indicated on Thursday. The first system is early this week, followed by a more southerly system next weekend, and new system for April 11-12th. Below to much below normal temps persist thru the 10-day forecast with some of the coldest temps in the 1st week of April. The GFS model hints at a warming trend beyond April 12th. The other models are less enthused about the drier/warmer trend. Our confidence this far out is low, but it’s something to monitor in coming forecasts. Until then, it’s a cold pattern with frequent rain.
** North American 10 Day Rainfall Forecast and 1-15 Day Temp Anomaly: