** CBOT 6:30 AM CST Prices; March soybeans are down 1.75 cents at $9.69, March corn is down .25 of a cent at $3.51, and March Chi wheat is down 3.50 cents at $4.3275.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! It’s a USDA Crop Report week with the all-important January data out Friday at 11:00 AM CST.
CBOT prices have been mixed to mostly lower to start the week with only a brief rally in CBOT soybean prices. A recovery in soyoil offered support to soybeans in rather average overnight volume. Just over 10,500 contracts of March soybeans, just over 6,000 contracts of March corn, and just over 7,000 March Chi wheat has changed hands.
Friday’s CBOT open interest rose 6,637 contracts in corn, 65 contracts in soybeans and 3,143 contracts in wheat. ARC noted that Friday’s CoT report showed that funds are net short 412,500 contracts of corn, soybeans and wheat, down just 10,000 contracts from the prior week’s record. Funds are taking a record net short grain position into Friday’s USDA January Crop report.
March crude oil futures are higher with values at $61.83, up $.42. The US dollar is slightly stronger with the Brazilian real trading at 3.24:1. The Argentine peso is priced at 18.8:1 with the Russian ruble at 57:1. The value of the USD should not have much of an impact on CBOT grain values.
President Trump is expected to get an earful as he attends and speaks at the Annual US Farm Bureau Meeting in Nashville TN today. US farmers want NAFTA to stay intact and will be vocal about free trade. However, based on a rather full US legislative calendar, this year’s Farm Bill vote is expected to be delayed well into 2019 as democrats hope for improved midterm election results. Budgetary cuts for the US Farm Bill loom and remains a farm concern.
Moderating temperatures and improved Plains moisture chances are expected to offer pressure for US wheat futures. US wheat has lost a large share of its export competitiveness in the world marketplace due to a winterkill rally. However, with Central US temps now moderating and USDA report head, a corrective decline is expected early this week.
In other world ag markets, Malaysian palmoil futures closed 33 ringgits higher at 2,627 RM/MT. A seasonal decline in palmoil production and strong demand continues to offer support. March Paris wheat futures are down .50 euros/MT at $160.50, while Dalian corn/soymeal futures closed mixed. Cash soymeal trade was brisk within China for a 2nd day.
Meager rains fell across Argentina and S Brazil on the weekend with a few totals better than .4” and coverage no better than 20%. The forecast calls for 5-6 days of warm/dry weather before shower chances return on the weekend.
Two frontal passes look pass across Argentina and S Brazil from Sunday into next Wednesday and produce .4-1.25” of rain. Noted drying will also be occurring across NE Brazil that has to be closely watched in coming weeks.
This is no time to sell a break with the charts starting to turn more supportive and funds so heavily invested on the short side of the marketplace.
** Argentine/S Brazilian Weather Too Dry/Too Warm In Next 2 Weeks: