** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: March soybeans are up 5.50 cents at $9.66, March corn is up 1.25 cents at $3.475, and March Chi wheat is down 3.25 cents at $4.1725.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Coming back from a long US holiday weekend and the January USDA Crop Report out on Friday, CBOT corn, soy and wheat futures are mixed in early week trade. The volume of trade has expanded from prior trading sessions as for much of the world, this was their first chance to position according to Friday’s USDA data.
Moreover, less than expected rain fell across Argentina and the forecast offers warm/below normal rainfall for the next 10 days. And Northern Brazilian crop areas has dried out which is causing concern to some producers with their soy and corn crops in the reproductive phase. The CBOT soybean/corn markets are adding weather premium to price while wheat tries to uncover support following the larger than expected ‘18 US winter wheat seeding. A 50% correction of the wheat rally comes in at $4.185 basis Mar KC wheat futures.
Paris wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows amid the pressure on farmers to sell wheat into a abundantly supplied world wheat marketplace.
The USD is slightly lower after posting a recovery late Monday off the psychological support level of 90.00 against the USD index. March WTI crude oil is down $.40/barrel at $63.83 while the US stock market continues its push to another set of new rally highs. The Brazilian real is priced at 3.22:1, the Russian ruble at 56.4:1 and the Argentine peso at 18.7:1.
Malaysian palmoil futures fell 39 ringgits to $2,515 RM/MT on their large supply. Palmoil futures have been trading back and forth within a range for weeks as large stocks battle a seasonal decline in production.
Like the event in mid December, Argentine rainfall provided “disappointing” on the long holiday weekend with Cordoba faring the best with rains of .4-1.25”, but the rest of the country seeing amounts of .1-1.00”. Sure there were a few localized locations that picked more than 2.00”, the rain event is not going to end or even help the drought with another 10-12 days of dry and warming weather forecast.
And warming and drier than normal weather will persist across the northern half of Brazil for another 10 days. It’s nearly impossible during their wettest month of the year to not have rain fall in a 10 day period, but amounts in the next 10 days look to be just 20-40% of normal with rising temperatures. The combination will pull soil moisture lower and offer stress on reproducing corn and soybean crops.
NAFTA negotiations were expected to be wrapped up in March, but Pres Trump in a interview with the WSJ late last week, hinted that those negotiations could be extended based on the July Mexican Presidential election. Good news. Friday’s preliminary CBOT open interest showed corn up 25,541 contracts, soybeans up 3,686 and wheat up 13,318. This is no place to be a seller!
** January 1-30th Rainfall Percent of Normal: Too Dry in Many S American Areas: