** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: March soybeans are unchanged at $9.6875, March corn is down .50 of a cent at $3.525, and March Chi wheat is up 1.5 cents at $4.23.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! With the exception of March soyoil, it has been a calm and low volume overnight trade at the CBOT. March corn volume is just over 5,000 contracts, March Chi wheat is over 6,500 contracts and March soybean volume is just over 5,000 contracts. The big volume in an ag commodity overnight is March soyoil where more than 10,500 contracts have changed hands.
Wednesday’s CBOT open interest showed a 9,876 contract gain in corn, a 10,996 contract gain in soybeans, and a 649 contract decline in wheat. The ongoing rise in corn open interest is catching the eye of traders.
China released its GDP rate for the 4th quarter and 2017. China’s 4th quarter GDP rate reached 6.8% with the full 2017 GDP rate being 6.9%, the 1st annual increase in 7 years. The China yuan has rallied and is trading this AM at 6.42:1 USD – its best levels since late 2015. The yuan reached a high back in early ‘17 at 6.95:1 – so its enjoyed considerable strengthening since.
The Brazilian real is trading at 3.22:1, the Argentine peso at 18.8:1 and the Russian ruble at 56.5:1 this AM. Producers in all three countries are resisting sales amid their weakening currency and low cash bids.
WTI March crude oil futures are trading above $64.00 with the US dollar little changed against a basket of currencies. Crude and the emerging world currencies have been resilient, even in the face of bearish expectations.
EIA will be out today with its weekly ethanol and crude oil report and a jump in US ethanol production is expected as producers return their grinds to normal levels following the holiday and bitter cold temperatures.
A second January thaw will be occurring across much of the US heading into February. The warmth will aid livestock and push back north the snowpack across the Central US. Showers are expected across NE and N KS, but totals in TX, OK and the rest of KS will be limited.
The Argentine weather forecast calls for limited rainfall over the next 10 days with cumulative rain totals for the period ranging from .25-.75”. The heat will be building from the south to the north with 90-95 degree readings returning today and persisting into the middle of next week. Soil moisture levels are in a decline and proucers are cutting their 1st corn and soybean crop estimates. Most see the 2018 Argy corn harvest in a range of 37-39 MMTs vs USDA’s 42 MMTs forecast of last week.
A drier than normal weather pattern will persist across N Brazil while above normal rainfall pelts the Parana, MGDS and Santa Carterina. The above normal rainfall is spawning growing concern for soy yield amid rust/diseases.
Corn has found a bid on reduced 2018 US seeding expectations while soybeans await S American weather and yield determinations. It’s another mixed day.
** La Nina Strengthening Across SE Pacific:
