CBOT Soybean/Corn Rally to Accelerate on Worsening Argentine Drought; During Crop Reproduction Phase

Feb 11, 10:30 am | Sunday Commentary | Share this:

** AgResource Pre Opening Sunday Market Calls: Soybeans 4-9 cents higher, corn 1-2 cents higher, with wheat steady to 1-3 cents higher.  

 ** Sunday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are sharply higher on the deepening Argentine drought amid the ongoing dryness across the Central US. Friday’s sharp late day reversal will offer additional  buying stimulus. The marketplace has been trying to balance the increasing Brazilian soy crop estimates against the declining Argentine soy crop. However, the ongoing and deepening drought against the crop reproductive period shifts concern to a larger Argentine crop shortfall that could cause a more vigorous/lasting CBOT rally.  The attached map reflects rainfall percentages from November 1st including the 2 week forecast of rainfall into Feb 25th.

**Nov 1-Feb 25% of normal Rainfall:

US weather

  Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money are short 83,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 13,000), short 83,000 corn (down 48,000), short 10,000 soybeans (down 12,000), short 3,000 soyoil (down 13,000),  long 52,000 contracts of meal (down 3,000).

** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The weekend rains were disappointing across Argentina with just a few spits of rain across the north. The front did reduce temps to the 80’s and 90’s from the extreme heat of the past few weeks. Brazilian weather was within our forecast expectations.

  The weather models are in good agreement for the next 10-12 days, but differ in their extended range solutions. The attached 10 day EU model precipitation map highlights expanding dryness across Argentina and Eastern Brazil.

 The forecast is dry and cool for Argentina to start the week, with continued dry weather and warming temps into next weekend. We do not see a meaningful chance of rain until a week from today – late next Sunday into Tuesday, when a weak front pushes northward and produces showers of .1-.8”, with the best coverage across S Cordoba. Such rain is well below normal, and we do not expect coverage of the rain to exceed 50% leaving many areas parched. And we are also not impressed by rains in the 11-15 day period and forecast mostly below normal totals. Heat will be building in the extended range as a high pressure Ridge reforms. The Brazilian forecast features drying weather conditions across eastern crop areas and below normal rainfall across  Mato Grosso and Goais. This will advance the soy harvest.

** 10 Day EU Weather Model Rainfall Forecast and 15 Day Temp Departure: 

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weekend precip