Summary: As of May 30, China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin was 1 Yuan/MT, down 141 Yuan from the prior week. The “forward” margin was 31 yuan/MT, down 169 Yuan from the prior week. But the forward margin was 101 Yuan above what it was a year ago. Domestic soyoil’s price rose nearly 1% this past week. Domestic soymeal price lost 5.1%. In the May WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for China’s soybean imports 2 MMT to 98 MMT vs last year’s 91.6 MMT. The weekly crush volume rose last week following an increase in deliveries to plants. Around 4-5 MMT of soybeans are stuck at ports due to stricter inspections. Soymeal stocks were 37% below a year ago. Similarly, soyoil stocks were down 30% from a year ago. Weekly crushing volume was expected to remain high at 2 MMT a week.
Yesterday, the “theoretical” crush margin for imported soybeans “spot” delivery in China was 1 Yuan/MT (see red line in chart below). That is down 141 Yuan from a week ago.
The crush margin for beans for “forward” delivery was 31 Yuan/MT, down 169 Yuan from a week ago (see blue line in chart above). But, the forward margin is 101 Yuan above what it was a year ago.
Above is a chart that shows the soymeal price used to calculate the crush margin. Soymeal’s price is down 5.1% from last week. Several months ago, soymeal prices were record high. Soymeal’s price is down 11% from a year. Below is a chart that shows the soyoil price that was used to calculate the crush margin. Soyoil’s price is up 0.8% from last week. Soyoil’s price is down 39% from a year ago.