Fig. 1: Morning satellite view of the tropics/subtropics with annotated key features.
Discussion: The Madden Julian oscillation is not affecting the eastern tropical Pacific or the tropical North Atlantic. However, the intra-seasonal tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is becoming more active (Fig. 1), earlier than normal. Convection is the warming tropical East Pacific is organizing and a tropical system is likely to develop by midweek south of southeast Mexico. The upper shear across the tropical North Atlantic, down-wind the eastern Pacific convection is preventing tropical wave formation. However, the western Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to become tropically active in 10 days (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2: The GFS operational model issued at 0600 GMT indicates a possible tropical feature in the east-central Gulf of Mexico.
