Download The Climate Impact Company U.S. Soil Moisture Forecast
Pictured: Current U.S. soil moisture anomalies and the seasonal trend.
Current U.S. soil moisture anomaly analysis identifies North-Central U.S. drought which has expanded to parts of Iowa. Wet soils remain gathered in the Upper Midwest and Gulf of Mexico region. The seasonal trend indicates the wet anomaly across the West is fading fast while the North-Central U.S. dryness is expanding southward. Clearly the only real wet zone is the Gulf region enhanced by early season tropical cyclone activity.
Pictured: The climatology of PDO/AMO regimes during the warm season on U.S. soil moisture where red areas favor drier conditions. The +PDO/+AMO regime is intact now. The NOAA CAS model soil moisture anomaly forecast for the end of August and end of October is indicated.
There is concern that the drier late spring/early summer climate affecting the West and Central U.S. could expand. Currently, the warm phase of both the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation are in-place although not classic signatures. During +PDO/+AMO regimes when ENSO is neutral in the warm season the U.S. has increased dry-to-drought tendencies inn the Northwest to Midwest and Southeast U.S. So far this warm season this dry climatology is verifying for the West and Central U.S.
The NOAA CAS soil moisture model accurately forecast the North-Central drought to develop from forecasts issued earlier this year. The latest NOAA CAS outlook indicates the Great Plains dryness will expand southward during summer and eastward to the Mid-South late summer/early autumn. A drier trend is also noted for the Southeast U.S.
Climate Impact Company is maintaining a drought forecast for the Great Plains but missing the core of the soybean/corn growing areas. This outlook is watched closely for possible eastward expansion for late summer. The tropical cyclone season is forecast above normal which could prevent and Southeast/East-Central U.S. drought expansion.
