Highlight: Week 2-4 Outlooks – ALL CROP AREAS
United States: Thundery regime across Plains much of later May into June.
Next week: Warm and humid across the Great Plains featuring frequent thundershowers all zones. Most important rainfall is across the Corn Belt where up to 2 in. is forecast by the ECM. Kansas/Oklahoma thundershowers are more scattered therefore effectiveness of rain on drought areas is limited. Thundershowers also frequent northern Texas.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): Models indicate a western U.S. upper trough inviting Gulf moisture northward in the central and northern Great Plains where above normal rainfall is likely in 2 zones: Dakotas and Nebraska to Minnesota. Severe thunderstorms affect the central Great Plains. Dryness persists in Oklahoma to Texas but the Great Plains are thundery and cooler Nebraska northward.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): The MJO is active shifting across Maritime Continent according to yesterday’s updated ECM 30-day forecast. During MJO phase 3 the East-Central/Southeast U.S. is usually wetter than normal. The NCEP CFS V2 forecast properly indicates the wetter regime inspired by the MJO. The Great Plains are still showery across Wheat zones while Corn areas are drier. Temperatures are warmer than normal in Texas and temperate in the Great Plains.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): MJO is likely to shift to the West Pacific in early June with intensity as indicated by the ECMWF. The Great Plains stays thundery but limited aerial coverage of rainfall. Temperatures begin to turn warmer than normal. Very humid conditions are likely.
Europe: Wetter change next week.
Next week: Week begins with 2 potent upper troughs over U.K. to Spain and Romania with a third over Turkey. Upper trough consolidates and intensifies over south-central Europe on Tuesday shifting (more broadly) across Eastern Europe late next week. Result is a wet pattern for all wheat areas featuring 1-3 in. of rain according to ECM. A wetter forecast change which previously indicated most heavy rain was in Southern Europe.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): Forecast confidence is below average. Indicated is a general broadening ridge pattern across Europe with the upper trough track across Southern Europe (according to GFS ENS). The NCEP CFS V2 is in general agreement with the GFS ENS. The showery zone is Southeast Europe including wheat zones. To the north, dryness and anomalous warmth regenerates. Southwest Europe is also cool/showery. Trending drier in France/Germany.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): The best forecast into early June is persistence. The upper ridge favors a northwest/north Europe location while showery troughs roll across Southern Europe.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): Long-range models all love the southern Europe trough while the ridge pattern is well north. Wheat zones are split in half with southern areas showery while northern wheat zones may miss the rain.
Ukraine/Black Sea region/Western Russia: Wetter change next week.
Next week: Wetter change Ukraine to Black Sea region due to presence of upper trough early next week. The showery regime eases Southwest Russia into the region in-between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea mid-to-late week. However, showers continue to pounce on Ukraine. ECM indicates potential several in. of rain for the western half of the country with lesser amount eastern Ukraine.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): Based on the ECM ENS an evolving upper ridge develops over the Caspian Sea. Upstream a prevailing trough pattern affects south to southeast sections of Europe. Implied is a wet fetch toward Ukraine occasionally shifting north into Southwest Russia and eastward into the Black Sea region. However, the wet pattern is primarily focused on Ukraine with most rain in western portions of the country. Warmer than normal temperatures with above normal humidity.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): Tough forecast into early June as models try to change the pattern favoring an upper trough across Turkey while the ridge pattern shifts east of the Caspian Sea and the northern Europe ridge is weaker. This set-up brings wet weather to the Black Sea region but Ukraine and Southwest Russia are likely dry.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): Favoring a South-Central Europe showery trough while a drier/warmer ridge pattern reaches across Ukraine and Southwest Russia.
China: Wheat zones in-and-out of wet weather.
Next week: Very warm and dry across wheat zones early week. However 2 cold fronts chop down the heat bringing potentially heavy rain midweek and again late week to wheat zones.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): Broad ridge pattern according to ECM ENS. Warmer than normal is confidently forecast. However, the MJO is active in Maritime Continent. Therefore rains extend northward into the southern half of China mostly missing the wheat zone.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): MJO shifts west toward the Western Pacific. If so a following upper trough should emerge along or just east of the China Coast. Implied is a showery regime for south and east portions of China with cooler temperatures.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): Re-emerging upper ridge pattern favors drier and hotter climate.
Research ALERT: Published in recent AMS Journal of Climate…La Nina to El Nino transition causes drought during summertime across China wheat areas. CIC will summarize this research later today.
Australia: Madden Julian oscillation influence on climate increases.
Next week: A cooler forecast change as anomalous warmth is confined to Southwest Australia. Also a dry forecast with the east coast the only location with a rain risk. ECM indicates 2-3 in. of rain is possible far Southeast Australia mostly just east/south of wheat zones.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): MJO presence to the north favors wetter/cooler climate for northern Australia. To the south an upper ridge develops keeping southern Australia dry and warmer than normal.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): Ensembles lead into the NCEP CFS V2 forecast nicely. The upper ridge is present southern Australia while lingering wet weather induced by the MJO affects northwest Australia. Nationally, a warmer than normal climate.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): A low confidence forecast favors increasing wet risk possibly related to the onset of the anticipated negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole.
South America: Brazil looks very dry.
Next week: A sharp upper trough and attendant cold front invite heavy rainfall to Paraguay and far northern Argentina by Tuesday. The front stalls and focuses showers across northwest Argentina to southeast Brazil mid-to-late week. To the north, much of Brail is without rainfall.
Week 2 ahead (May 20-26): The upper trough east of Argentina persists and may re-intensify. Australia stays on the cool side while Brazil is warm and dry. In-between wet weather affect north/northeast Argentina to southeast Brazil.
Week 3 Ahead (May 27-June 2): Interestingly, NCEP CFS V2 exchanges the trough pattern east of Argentina for a ridge while a new trough develops over Argentina. Argentina looks wet in this scenario while Brazil stays dry.
Week 4 Ahead (June 3-9): A low confidence forecast favors a showery regime across Argentina while Brazil is dry.
