Climate Impact Early AG Wire

May 16, 3:31 am | Climate Impact | Share this:

Are Medium-range Forecasts Consistent? – All Crop Areas

United States:  Showery Great Plains next week.

Days 6-10: Primary issue is the MJO-induced heavy rain pattern into Florida and the Southeast U.S. Does this pattern continue and do frontal zones entrain this moisture into Great Plains? GFS and ECM agree that a showery/thundery regime persists Kansas/Missouri although varying intensity while the northwest Plains are more agreeably wet. Warmer and more humid than normal.  

Days 11-15: Favoring the less warm ECM ENS. The anomalous warmth is centered on the Great Plains particularly Corn Belt but is not excessive. Kansas wheat and southward is dry while the northern Plains are showery. Some of the shower extend to the Corn Belt but are generally light.

Europe:/West Russia: Southern Europe showers, dry to the north next week.

Days 6-10: Not much change in the pattern as a bold trough persists over Greenland with an upstream ridge over northern Europe and a series of weak upper troughs along the southern Europe Coast. Result is wet weather from Southern France to Italy and also Southeast Europe plus the Eastern Black Sea Region. Most of the wheat Belt is dry.  Warmer than normal temperatures in the Wheat Belt and northward.

Days 11-15: The trend is wetter Southern Europe affecting Eastern Europe wheat zones and also wetter Western Russia. The Southeast Europe wet forecast is confident. Ensembles agree on marginally warmer than normal temperature. Excessive warmth is beneath the upper ridge pattern in northern Europe/northwest Russia.

China: Severe thunderstorms then cool next week.

Days 6-10: Vigorous upper trough Central Russia/Mongolia with a thunderstorm pattern along the southern periphery across north/northeast China. These storms are severe and fast movers. Crop areas are affected by high wind and hail with passage of these storms. Cooler changes as cold fronts bring polar air from the north.

Days 11-15: Looking warmer with more thundershowers northern China and Southeast China turns more showery. Upper flow trending more zonal with the upper trough over Central Russia/Mongolia fading.

India: Dryness dominates.

Days 6-10: Models vary on temperature pattern but agree on dryness affecting most of India. The only exception is wet weather in the coastal southwest and far northeast corner. Crop areas are dry.

Days 11-15: MJO advance into the Indian Ocean supports a wetter forecast most strongly indicated by the GFS ENS. The southern half of India is potentially wetter than normal. Northern India remains dry.

Australia: Dryness dominates.

Days 6-10: GFS and ECM agree on essentially no rain across the continent. The only exception is the far northern coast. The ECM is a little cooler than the GFS.

Days 11-15: The GFS ENS introduces some wet weather south-central India. However, other models keep the continent drier than normal. Southwest and Southeast Australia crop areas stay dry.

South America: Cool/dry next week.

Days 6-10: No change in the outlook as a cold front moves north of Argentina and into Brazil bringing a cool and dry air mass. The cold front moves most shower activity well north to central Brazil.

Days 11-15: Trending warmer in both Argentina and Brazil. Showery regime (not excessive) sets-up in far northern Argentina and Uruguay to Paraguay.

North America season 1-3 outlook issued yesterday. Europe, Western Russia and Australia issued late today. South America/Asia by late week.