Widespread wet weather affects the Great Plains in early April followed by drier and cooler weather week 2 of April. In Europe a dry pattern with anomalous warmth is dominant early-to-middle April.
A dangerously dry climate may evolve mid-year and carry forward to next summer across Australia.
Warm SSTA across the North Atlantic correlate to anomalous high pressure across Europe and Western Russia favoring a warmer and drier than normal warm season climate pattern ahead, Central Europe and Western Russia (plus parts of Ukraine) are at risk of drought.
Whether El Nino forms or not in 2017 may not matter to the South America climate through the winter season. Robust warmth of the eastern tropical Pacific off the northwest coast of South America will contribute to an El Nino-like climate ahead.
A possible El Nino, positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole and a warmer than normal North Atlantic combine to push drought risk in several key areas for global crops.
On average a drier than normal climate affects central and eastern Europe plus Ukraine into early April. A buoyant (warm) Nino12 SSTA region leads to pulses of wet weather in South America. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole is developing – a dry influence on Australia.
Analogs doubt El Nino while dynamic models favor moderate to strong El Nino for 2017. The observational trends are warmer last week point toward El Nino although neutral ENSO remains in-place for now.
We weather spreads across the Great Plains in the medium-range while dryness emerges in Europe.
At the moment we’re staring at a possible record warm 3+ year period of the equatorial East Pacific. if so, the long-term cycle of ENSO is likely to flip to the warm phase in which we could average 4 out of every 7 years the presence of El Nino.