High pressure areas persistent across Western Europe and Central-to-Southeast Russia the past few months to 1 year (for Russia) shift east for this summer. The European high pressure area anchors over Southeast Europe bringing drought risk to that region to southern Ukraine and possibly in-between the Black and Caspian Sea (north of Georgia).
Week 2 and 3 ahead indicate mostly drier than normal conditions across Europe then wet conditions arrive just after mid-May.
Forecast trend is wetter across northern Brail while anomalous warmth and mostly dry weather dominates Argentina.
Presence of an upper trough in the West is tough to shake and this feature is responsible for persistent wet weather affecting parts of the Great Plains.
The NOAA and CIC summer (and late spring) climate forecasts have some differences but are in general agreement on no Great Plains drought.
The climate forecasts support a drier trend in the Great Plains for this summer season while Europe is also dry. A wet reversal is forecast for Brazil.
Increasing influence of the Madden Julian oscillation on Central U.S. rainfall favors a wetter GFS forecast the next 1-2 weeks.
Risk of excessive rainfall the next several weeks lowers due to a cooling trend in the Nino12 SSTA region.