Commentary

Midday Update

May 26, 12:44 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** It has been a mixed session of trade at the CBOT with corn, soybeans and wheat futures widely mixed in tepid volume. Soybeans have pushed to new monthly lows while the grains firm on spread unwinding. Traders are well aware of the large net fund short position that already exists in corn and are cautious with any new short positions. Funds have been bigger traders (than expected) heading to the holiday weekend. A mixed close is expected by AgResource.  ** CBOT brokers estimate that funds have bought 5,500 contracts of wheat and  9,000 contracts of corn, while selling 5,100 contracts of soybeans. In soy products, funds have sold 2,000 contacts of soymeal and 3,000 contracts of soyoil. The soyoil…

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Cattle Steady Awaiting Post Holiday Beef Trade; Central US Weather Warmer

May 26, 7:32 am | AM Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle closed higher on Thursday and steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Early selling found good demand that carried cattle prices higher into the end of the day, leaving June $1.80 higher and August up $1.475 at the close. Slow trading is expected after the first hour, with the market to respond to the Cattle on Feed report that will be released at 11 AM CT.   The April Livestock Slaughter report showed total beef production at 1,963 Mil Lbs, 87% of March and 100% of a year ago. Total steer/heifer slaughter increased 2% from a year ago, and was at a 3 year high, however, fed beef production was down 1%…

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Mixed CBOT Trade Heading into Long US Holiday Weekend; Central US Weather is Warmer

May 26, 6:59 am | Morning Commentary

**Administration Note: AgResource will be releasing our Weekend Report this   afternoon to afford more time to our employees for the Memorial Day Holiday. ** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are down 2.00 cents at $9.3725, July corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.6925 while July Chi wheat is up .50 of a cent at $4.3125. ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! It is another night of mixed and low volume trade as CBOT corn, soy and wheat futures trade either side of unchanged. Just over 7,000 contracts of July corn, 13,000 contracts of July soybeans, and just over 3,500 contracts of July Chi wheat have changed hands. Most traders will be squaring a…

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Afternoon Weather Update

May 25, 4:48 pm | Weather

US Forecast Stays Cool, Maintains Active Flow of Moisture in E Corn Belt: It’s still difficult to measure production prospects against recent and upcoming weather. The Plains and far W Corn Belt will see a near ideal mix of rain/sun and slightly warmer than normal temps. The Eastern Midwest, however, will continue to be plagued by cool temps and ongoing rains. The GFS model’s two week precip forecast is attached.   The EU & GFS models are in good agreement on the pattern ahead, and the issue is the lasting presence of a low pressure Trough aloft the Great Lakes and SE Canada. This changes only briefly late next week, with additional lite/moderate rain to return to the E Corn…

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Soy Futures Slump In Slow Pre Holiday Trade

May 25, 4:37 pm | Soybeans

Firm overnight trade gave way to technical selling that took both new and old crop soybean contracts to the lowest level in a year. New speculative selling was the theme across the complex. Commodity fund traders were estimated as net sellers of; 6,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 2,500 soyoil contracts.   US soybean export sales were towards the top end of expectations, and also at a 4 week high. Total export commitments at 57.8 MMTs are record large and represent 104% of the latest USDA annual export estimate, with a record large 7 MMTs of outstanding sales. This after the USDA increased their export forecast in May to 2,050 Mil Bu. It’s possible that the USDA raises the forecast by…

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Wheat Follows Corn Lower, EU Futures Maintain Support

May 25, 4:27 pm | Wheat

Wheat futures ended mixed, with winter wheat lower and spring wheat higher, and MGE’s premium to other markets continues to widen. July Minneapolis settled at $1.32/Bu premium to Chicago, which on a continuous basis is the highest since January. Our work continues to suggest that there’s value in higher protein wheat.   Old crop weekly export sales totaled 7 Mil Bu, with total 16/17 commitments now at 1,043 Mil Bu, nearly 10 Mil above the USDA’s target. New crop sales totaled a decent 13 Mil, and along with outstanding old crop sales, new crop commitments as of mid-May rest at 235 Mil, up 11% from last year. With EU cash prices little changed this week, the US Gulf market remains…

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Corn Tests Tech Support on Weak Energy Markets

May 25, 4:05 pm | Corn

  The US weather pattern offers a more seasonal pattern to the Plains and Western Midwest in the next 10 days, but maintains cool temps and unwanted showers in the Eastern Corn Belt. Measuring nationwide yield potential remains difficult, but our work does suggest additional rain in IL, IN, ON and MI is not a positive, and is certainly not needed. Otherwise, the dollar rebounded slightly and crude fell to losses of $2.75/barrel.     US corn export sales through the week ending 18 Mil Bu, down 10 Mil from the period week, and importers are slowly beginning their transition to South America. Argentina’s harvest progress has reached 36% complete this week, vs. 29% on this date a year ago,…

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Midday GFS Forecast Cooler/Wetter in 10-15 Day Period; CBOT Bounces

May 25, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** A firmer CBOT start could not be sustained amid an improved Central US weather forecast. The GFS/EU models both offered reduced rainfall and warming temperatures in the extended range which has sparked some modest selling this AM. The weakness in crude oil has also spurred macro selling as the bulls bank profits following long anticipated news that OPEC was going to maintain their existing production cuts for another 9 months.   Soybeans have been the downside price leader as domestic Chines meal demand slows which could worsen their already negative crush rates. July soy futures have fallen below last week’s low with the next downside price target being $9.30, the April lows. Spot CBOT soybeans have held above $9.20-9.30…

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Cattle To Go Range Bound?;Midwest Forecast Improved With Less Rain

May 25, 7:22 am | AM Weather, Uncategorized

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle and feeder cattle closed down on Wednesday, and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Live cattle opened up towards the low end of the previous day’s range, and technical selling sent futures plunging early Wednesday morning. June caught support against last week’s low and most live contracts were back at or above the middle of the day’s range at the close.   Feeder futures were off by an even greater amount, but generally holding above the cash feeder index. Support in August feeders continues to be uncovered under $148, and a small chart gap left with Wednesday’s trade will now be the 1st target for the next feeder cattle rally….

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