Commentary

Canadian Planting Intentions

Apr 21, 3:46 pm | Corn, Soybeans, Wheat

Canadian farmers intend to plant 1.63 Mil more Hectares than last year’s final area, with most of the expansion in oilseeds. Combined canola and soybean seeding intention were pegged by Stats Canada this AM at a record 11.9 Mil HAs, up 1.4 Mil (14%) from last year, and with limited expansion in crush capacity additional supplies will find their way to the world market. ARC does note that cool/wet weather into early May will limit seeding progress, and so weather in May is much more important, but today’s report leans a bit bearish. Canadian wheat seedings at 9.4 Mil HAs are unchanged from last year, and so are slightly higher than expected. Winter wheat seedings in E Canada are down,…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Afternoon Weather Update

Apr 21, 3:45 pm | Weather

Flood Concerns Noted in Southern, Western Corn Belt Next Two Weeks: The US weather pattern through the first week of May is little changed from prior runs, and the EU, GFS and Canadian models feature excessive rainfall across parts of the S and W Midwest through the period. NOAA’s 8-14 day outlook is at left, and cool-ish, wet conditions will continue to act as a weight on normal corn planting progress. Note that should the forecast fully verify, cumulative rainfall of 5-8” could impact AR, MO, IA, S IL, S IN and KY into May 7th.   Through the weekend, a narrow band of heavy rain will impact OK, E KS and the S Midwest. Thereafter a broad Trough/Ridge pattern…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Wheat Finds Support; Cash Prices Approaching Loan Rate in Plains

Apr 21, 3:40 pm | Wheat

CME contracts ended weaker, but the remainder of the US wheat market finally found some measure of support. ARC highlighted at midday HRW cash prices across the Western Plains are again flirting with loan rates, and are again below the price of corn on a metric ton basis. Plains weather remains highly favorable, but there’s little fundamental reason to justify sub-$4.00 wheat futures until world stocks in 2017/18 can be confirmed at a new record.   US Gulf wheat is still the world’s cheapest origin for nearby delivery, and below $4.20, lower protein Gulf HRW competes with Russia for summer demand. Canadian spring wheat planting intentions are higher than expected at 16.6 Mil Acres, and assuming normal weather Canada’s surplus…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Corn Ends Day Unchanged, Ends Week Down $.14

Apr 21, 3:40 pm | Corn

Corn futures ended within fractions of unchanged across the board, and funds are now testing short positions seen at recent seasonal lows. Farmer selling has all but halted, and with a bulk of the speculative trade now short, ARC fully expects new selling to be limited until trend/above yields can be confirmed in late summer.   Managed funds on Tuesday were short a net 172,00 contracts, up 14,000 on the previous week and we estimated their net short today at closer to 185,000. Such a short has only been exceeded in 4 weeks previously since 2006 – when managed fund record keeping began – and with the US forecast rather wet in early May, and with S American production having…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Hogs Continue Lower On Weak Cash Markets

Apr 21, 3:32 pm | Hogs & Pork

Short covering again offered early and short lived support, before hog markets turned back down on Friday, leaving June hogs at the lowest level since last October while December closed back under $60. The cash market stayed down at the end of the week, with negotiated trade down $.47, and the cash index off $.30 at $61.59.   Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.287 Mil head, 3% over last week and 2.4% larger than a year ago. Kill totals have been well over last year nearly every week, and the 2017 year to date total is up 2%. So far, there has not been much of a seasonal decline in slaughter rates, and outside of holiday weeks, weekly kill totals are…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Soy Futures Finish Firm In Late Week Trade

Apr 21, 2:43 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were back and forth through the day and 3-5 cents higher at the close. Market news remains slow, but the announcement of US old crop soybean sales to an unknown destination (likely China) was a surprise. The sale does not change the US balance sheet significantly, but shows that the US could catch some unexpected, late season export business. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 7,000 soybean contracts, and 3,000 each in soymeal and soyoil.   Even after the large break in soybean prices over the last 2 months, soybean basis has stayed fairly flat in C IL, (and significantly weaker in the Western Cornbelt). The US market has been flush with supply, and end users have not…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Mixed Midday Trade on China and Weather

Apr 21, 12:15 pm | Mid-day Commentary

** The AM CBOT trade has been mixed with soybeans finding support from Chinese interest for US soybeans off the PNW, while corn and wheat sag on fund selling and improved weather forecasts for planting. The wheat market has surprisingly been pushed sharply lower this week against limited change in the world wheat values as funds added to their near record large net short. In fact, some cash HRW prices are back pushing down against the US farm loan price and producers see no reason to make new crop sales at these depressed prices.   The spot CBOT wheat/corn spread is back at $.46 premium, its lowest level looking back to the ethanol heydays. Cash wheat vs corn is even cheaper,…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Central US Weather Wet for Some; Cattle Called Steady To Start

Apr 21, 7:20 am | AM Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures closed higher on Thursday and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. After a higher start, June cattle pushed to a new contract high, which found selling ahead of today’s Cattle on Feed report. Similar to the February expiration, April continues to grind higher into the end of the month. Feeder futures initially followed the live market higher, but after forging new contract highs, turned around and closed lower. Cash markets went dark on Thursday, while beef cutout values closed back up.   Weekly beef export shipments were in line with average, while export sales for the week were the best since mid-January. Accumulated export shipments are now at 118%…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

CBOT Mixed as Traders Try to Gauge US Corn Seeding Progress

Apr 21, 7:02 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are up 2.50 cents at $9.4925, May corn is down .50 of a cent at $3.5725 while May Chi wheat is down .75 of a cent at $4.055. ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trade has been mixed in solid volume. More than 17,000 contracts of July soybeans, more than 20,000 July soybeans and more than 14,000 contracts of July Chi wheat has changed hands. The overnight volume is 50% better than in recent days.   Thursday’s CBOT open interest was up more than 22,332 contracts in corn, down 4,260 in soybeans, and up 16,214 contracts in Chi wheat. In KC wheat, open interest was up a…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In