Commentary

Wheat Rallies into Close; US Dollar at New Lows for Move

Jul 20, 4:20 pm | Wheat

US wheat futures traded both sides of unchanged, ultimately ending slightly higher on currency changes and as fund profit taking may have run its course. The US dollar hit a new 10-month low, the euro hit a multi-year high which works to keep cash prices there elevated. And as for world prices, updated fob offers are below, and it’s clear that the Aussie market is beginning digest much lower yield potential. Very little rain is projected in Australia into August 1st.    US weekly export sales totaled 25 Mil Bu, better than expected and the highest of the marketing year so far. White wheat continues to be sold in abundance, but even HRS sales aren’t too far behind last year….

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Corn Rallies Again; Market Digesting Expanding Drought

Jul 20, 4:20 pm | Corn

The corn market’s central focus now is projected 10-day rainfall in IA and Southern IL, and today’s updates (unfortunately) feature ongoing dryness there into the final days of the month. 48-hour accumulation is at left, and only a small pocket of IA benefited from Wednesday’s system. The very latest model runs keep meaningful precip into next week isolated to far NE IA and N IL, and so the driest areas look to get drier in the near term.   US corn export sales through the week ending July 13th totaled 18 Mil Bu, roughly triple the previous week but not overly exciting. Exporters have now sold 99.5% of the USDA’s forecast with six weeks remaining in the crop year. Whether…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 20, 4:18 pm | Weather

Forecast Little Changed; Rain Isolated to Northeast Corn Belt: The EU and GFS models continue in mostly good agreement, though with the GFS still the wetter of the two. Precip in the last 24 hours fell mostly as expected, but largely missed IA, and the pattern through the next 7-8 days remains dry and rather hot across the Plains and W Corn Belt. Temps today (yet again) reached into the upper 90s and low 100s across OK, KS, NE and MO.   This week’s drought monitor shows modest south and eastward expansion, and intensified further in the Dakotas. The theme into late next week remains one of high pressure dominating the Plains and W Midwest, and we look for further expansion…

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Hogs End Mixed On Nearby Weakness

Jul 20, 4:01 pm | Hogs & Pork

A steady start to the morning found selling in August, while a rally in December was stopped at midday, with price pulled back near unchanged at the close. The hog index was down 6 cents at $92.40, and projected 39 cents lower for Friday which puts the index $.83 lower for the week. Negotiated trade was also $.51 lower on moderate volume.   The July Livestock slaughter report showed total June pork production at 2.053 Bil Lbs, 102% of a year ago, and a record production total for the month of June. The monthly average barrow/gilt carcass weight was at 208 Lbs versus 211 Lbs a year ago. The weekly Actual Slaughter report with date for the week of July…

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Soybeans Extend Weekly Gains Through Thursday’s Trading

Jul 20, 3:26 pm | Soybeans

Soy futures traded up overnight and continued higher through the day on Thursday. Producers have been light sellers in the last week on concerns of yield and crop size, so the market is back searching for supply. At the close, soybean prices were up 13-14 cents, and more than 40 cents over last week’s low. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 12,000 soybean and 4,000 contracts each in the soymeal and soyoil markets.   Old crop soybean export sales jumped to a 7 week high, and new crop sales were the largest of the year at 1.5 MMTs. Export commitments are now just over 60 MMTs or 106% of the USDA’s forecast. However cumulative shipments stand at 53.6 MMTs,…

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July WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Jul 20, 2:44 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The July WASDE report featured pork production and price forecasts adjusted to the the June inventory data for the remainder of 2017 and through the 1st half of 2018. Minimal adjustments to quarterly production forecasts were made, with a slight increase for the 4th quarter, while the 1st quarter of 2018 was barely lowered. But production in both quarter are projected to be record large. The Oct-Dec average live hog price forecast was unchanged at $41-45, and th 1st quarter forecast was increased by $3 to $48-52. The chart plots the July WASDE 1st quarter forecast against actual prices. CME Feb/Apr hog futures adjusted to a live equivalent, with normal basis are pricing in a 1st quarter average live price…

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Central US Weather To Stay Warm/Dry In Plains/W Midwest; Cattle Called higher

Jul 20, 8:09 am | AM Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle closed higher on Wednesday and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Futures were lower at the open following a non concerning BSE discovery, but that weaker open quickly found demand that carried cattle prices to $2+ gains into the close. Feeder cattle gained on the fat market and were $2.475-2.90 higher from August to January, while the feeder index was up $.16 at $149.16. The futures continue to trade over the index, but are also pricing in a late summer/early Autumn top in the feeder cattle market.   The week’s cash business started at the Fed Cattle Exchange, where 626 head traded at $118.30 for 1-9 day delivery and 82…

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Afternoon Weather Update

Jul 19, 4:56 pm | Weather

New GFS Model Already in Better Agreement with EU; Crop Relief Minimal Next 10 Days: A newly updated GFS has its first run at midday, and though the accuracy of the updates will take time to measure, the EU and GFS models are already in much better agreement on the 10-day pattern. Both feature regional improvements in moisture (centered on the Eastern Corn Belt), but neither include an outright pattern change. ARC maintains that drought will continue to expand slightly into the opening week of August. 30-day % of normal rainfall is attached. IA & Southern IL are ground zero for additional problems.   Radar maps show heavy rainfall working across the far eastern part of the Dakotas and MN….

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