Commentary

Afternoon Weather Update

Sep 22, 3:18 pm | Weather

Hot Weekend Ahead; Harvest Delays Only Brief: The overall US weather pattern is little changed from prior runs, but the major models continue to advertise near complete dryness beginning mid/late next week, which continues into the first week of October. Projected high temps on Saturday is displayed at left, and notice that readings in the 90s and low 100s will spread across much of the Plains and W Midwest. Crop maturity will be accelerated.   The models also still indicated soaking rainfall Sun-Tues, and predicted totals have been raised slightly across NE, the Dakotas and MN. Accumulation of 3-4” will be common across a majority of the Plains. This will disrupt harvest/winter wheat planting, but only temporarily, as normal/above normal temps…

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Corn Rallies Despite Harvest Acceleration

Sep 22, 3:16 pm | Corn

Corn followed neighboring soybeans to modest gains, and ARC mentions managed funds this week hold a larger short position than expected. Active harvest lies ahead, and progress rather quickly in October amid warmth and dryness. But cash wheat prices continue to move higher, including feed wheat, and as mentioned at midday the short corn trade has gotten rather crowded.   Managed fund as of Tuesday were short a net 135,000 contracts, up 15,000 from the previous week and the second largest mid-Sep total on record (second to last year). ARC estimates funds’ short position this evening just marginally smaller at 125-127,000 contracts. New selling must come from the farmer, who is not at all anxious, particularly as bins were cleared…

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Follow Through Buying Absent; Russian Interior Market Stabilizing?

Sep 22, 3:15 pm | Wheat

Wheat futures failed to capitalize on Thursday’s technical performance, but neither did the market collapse. How Dec CME performs around $4.50 early next week will be important to very short term direction. Otherwise prevailing themes are intact, with world markets rising again, albeit modestly. Funds on Tuesday were short a net 80,000 contracts, down 4,000 from the week before and compared to 127,000 on this week a year ago.   Domestic prices in Russia were mixed, and weaker again in the Volga region. But prices in S Russia, from where exports are sourced, rallied for the first time in six weeks to $155/Mt, basis spot. Russian exporter margins have widened in recent weeks, but stability in the domestic market will…

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Soybeans Rally Ahead Of The Weekend

Sep 22, 3:14 pm | Soybeans

Soybeans were higher overnight, and extended gains through the day in technical trading, with November pushing above both key trend line resistance and the 200-day moving average. December soymeal again led the complex higher and rallied from the 50-day moving average to test the 200-day moving average for the first time since late July. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and were falt for the day in the soyoil market.   The Commitment of Traders report confirmed that funds had finished covering their net short position in the soybean market, and started building a net long position  which as of Tuesday totaled 14,000 contracts. Funds have been chopped up in the soybean trade over the…

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Yield Changes in October

Sep 22, 3:13 pm | Corn, Soybeans

Since 1990, there has not been a strong tendency for NASS to either raise or lower the national soybean yield estimate in the October crop report. There have been 11 years that the yield was lowered by an average of 0.9 BPA, 12 years that NASS’s yield increased by an average of 1.1 BPA, and 2 years that the yield was unchanged. More recently, yield has been unchanged or higher in 8 of the last 13 years, with only minimal declines noted. However, there have been some surprising declines that have developed as crops have matured. The largest decline occurred in 2003, when both pod weights and pod counts declined in October, and continued to fall into the January Crop…

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Hogs Continue To New Lows Ahead of The Weekend

Sep 22, 3:12 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures were sharply lower at Friday’s open and traded lower all day. October hogs again marked new contract lows, while December had light support just above last week’s low. The hog index was $.80 lower on Friday at $60.12 and projected $1.05 lower for Monday, putting the index under $60 for the first time since April.   The pork cutout was firm Friday morning, though the belly value continues to trade under $100. However, the carcass value continues to trade at more than a $13 premium to cash hog prices, giving packers an estimated margin near $31/head.   NASS will release the September inventory report next week, and quieter trading is expected in the last half of next week….

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Markets Steady/Higher; Nov Bean Settlement Important

Sep 22, 11:52 am | Mid-day Commentary

AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Friday: 1/ No new advice. The CBOT been stronger than producers or traders expected as funds have been covering shorts with November soybeans rising above key resistance at $9.80. The rally above the 200-day moving average (and above a prior high) in November soybeans confirms a price trend of higher highs and higher lows. That same positive trend is noted in wheat, but not corn. Corn is holding in a tight range just above contract lows and has not been able to forge higher highs or even higher lows. US corn export demand is struggling and yields are coming in at higher than expected levels.   However, the corn short trade is crowded and…

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December Cattle To Close a Chart Gap?; The Midwest Harvest To Acclerate

Sep 22, 6:03 am | AM Weather

** AgResource Daily Cattle Analysis: Cattle futures were mostly unchanged or slightly better at the close on Thursday, and a steady outlook is offered for early trade this morning. Early strength on Thursday found profit taking, and the cattle market spent the day trading back and forth. Cash markets have remained at a standstill so far this week, though the CME is showing at least another $2-3 higher for this week.   The September Livestock Slaughter report showed a combined steer/heifer kill total of 2,341 million head, 106% of last year and the largest August slaughter rate since 2012. The average carcass weight of 858 Lbs was still 8 Lbs under last year, but fed beef production was still at…

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CBOT Rallies Overnight on China’s Domestic Meal Pricing; Can November Close Over $9.80?

Sep 22, 5:44 am | Morning Commentary

** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are up 8.00 cents at $9.7875, Dec corn is up 1.75 cents at $3.52 while Dec Chi wheat is up 2.0 cents at $4.545.  ** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mostly higher has been the overnight CBOT trade with corn, soybeans and wheat posting modest gains. Ongoing active domestic buying of Chinese soymeal along with technical demand has pushed CBOT values higher overnight. The end of the month/quarter loom  next week, which has some funds seeing value in the cheap raw material space.   November soybeans have rallied to resistance at $9.80, the 200 day moving average and the early September highs, with the grains in tow. The volume…

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