Corn again put it in an uninspiring performance, through fundamental input remains mostly supportive. Export sales, while at the low end of trade guesses, continue to outpace the average needed to meet the USDA’s forecast by a sizable margin. Argentina’s forecast has trended even drier through the middle part of March, and just this week are major forecasting firms beginning to really lower crop size there. And ethanol blend margins are moving up amid recent recoveries in energy markets.
Export sales through Feb 15th totaled 61 Mil Bu, down 16 Mil on the prior week but nearly triple the average required. Gulf basis is still quoted at a modest discount to Argentine origin, and a rather large discount to every other feedgrain. ARC fully expects weekly sales through spring to range from 55-80 Mil Bu, and we also mention it’s not just traditional importers extending coverage – but also a host of destinations not traditionally included in the US trade matrix.
The USDA this AM pegged 18/19 US end stocks at 2.27 Bil, vs. old crop stocks of 2.35. But amid ongoing export demand, and perhaps lower acreage, we wonder if new crop stocks won’t be closer to 1.8-1.9 Bil. We’re only sellers of rallies.