Corn traded in just a 3-cent range, with again limited news and outside influences noted. Crude ended mixed, but similarly uneventful, and amid warming temps harvest will expand northward rather quickly in the next several weeks. Combine yield data will drive short term direction.
Managed funds through the week ending Tuesday were short 119,000 contracts at the CME, up 10,000 from the previous week, which is the second largest net short as of mid-Sep since record keeping began in 2006. Funds’ net position this evening is pegged between 115-120,000, the point being new bearish info has to emerge to attract new selling.
Longer term, ARC’s view is that trend/above yields must be confirmed in South America for spot futures to trade below $3.40. It’s far too early to say much about S American potential, but do highlight a rapidly building La Nina, and La Nina events in 2008 & 2011 pulled Argentine corn yield 14% below trend – it’s certainly something to watch.
Nearby, choppy trading and narrow ranges are expected. No new sales are advised until S America’s fall/winter climate pattern is better known, and NASS’s Sep US corn yield is viewed as 2-3 Bu too high.
