Weaker major exporting currencies and a lack of fresh export news sent corn to minor losses, though Dec managed to hold above prior lows. The market lacks a story on both sides for now, and until more is known about the duration of Argentine dryness, and whether it persists into December, both the bulls and bears will struggle for leverage.
The CFTC’s report this afternoon pegged managed funds net short position as of last Tuesday at 206,000 contracts, up slightly on the previous week. Following post-WASDE report selling, ARC estimates funds’ net position this evening at a record large 231,000 contracts. US farmers will largely stay absent from the market, and the question ahead is who is left to sell?
Harvest progress as of Sunday reached 83% complete, vs. 91% on average this week, but amid complete dryness across the Plains and W Midwest through late Nov, some 92-94% of the crop will be gathered by the coming weekend.
Dryness in Argentina is viewed as favorable in the very near term, but the EU ensemble model this afternoon maintains a lack of meaningful rain there through Nov 28th. Holiday-reduced volume lies ahead; S American weather will be the market’s primary driver of price beyond Thanksgiving.
