The corn market’s central focus now is projected 10-day rainfall in IA and Southern IL, and today’s updates (unfortunately) feature ongoing dryness there into the final days of the month. 48-hour accumulation is at left, and only a small pocket of IA benefited from Wednesday’s system. The very latest model runs keep meaningful precip into next week isolated to far NE IA and N IL, and so the driest areas look to get drier in the near term.
US corn export sales through the week ending July 13th totaled 18 Mil Bu, roughly triple the previous week but not overly exciting. Exporters have now sold 99.5% of the USDA’s forecast with six weeks remaining in the crop year. Whether sales in the next two weeks are closer to 15 Mil or 5 Mil will determine if the USDA will raise its forecast. Total new crop commitments now rest at just 138 Mil Bu, down roughly 50% from last year.
This is certainly not a demand-led market, but until crop size can be determined, we view breaks as buying opportunities. As of now it’s difficult to know whether national yield will be 162 or 168, which is important. Upcoming weather is critical.
