Corn futures ended a penny higher ahead of Friday’s weekly export sales data, solid chart-based support, and as Northern Hemisphere planting will struggle over the next several weeks. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, citing weather of course, has lowered its Argentine crop estimate to 32 MMTs, vs. 41 last year and the USDA’s 36. Notice that Argentina’s exportable surplus isn’t much different from years prior to 2016 despite a surge in planted area in recent years. The loss of S Hemisphere production underpins the market on breaks.
Weekly sales are estimated in a range of 50-65 Mil Bu, down from last week’s multi-year high but still well above the pace needed to hit the USDA’s target. Argentine corn is more competitive beyond June, but farmer selling will be an issue there in the next few weeks. Brazil’s crop looks just fine, but it’s surplus won’t be readily available until August.
Soaking rainfall in the Delta next week, and ongoing snowfall in E Europe, will keep early planting rather limited – and eventually more attention will be paid to the lack of warmth projected across the heart of the Midwest into mid-April. ARC maintains a neutral outlook, but awaits acreage data before advancing cash sales.
