Dec corn has been unable to exceed its 20-day moving average since early summer, and again failed to do so today. Otherwise, it was a rather slow day, news-wise, and crop maturity should at least catch up with average in the next two weeks as abnormally warm temps are sustained. ARC also mentions that EU/Black Sea feed wheat prices continues to move higher, which should allow for better corn demand into East Asia from all origins. Funds sold an estimated 6,000 contracts of CBOT corn.
Maturity as of Sunday reached 34%, vs. 50% on this week a year ago and a longer term average of 45%. No frost is indicated – and in fact abnormally warm temps will stick around for another 6-7 days – but with maturity well behind normal in ND, SD, MN and IA, US temps will be worth monitoring into the first week of October. GD/EX ratings are unchanged at 61%; harvest is 4% complete, vs. 11% on average.
The remainder of the week will feature ethanol production data on Wednesday, but likely weak export sales on Thursday, and traders as a whole lack enthusiasm in putting in large new corn positions.
ARC continues to caution against chasing breaks, and note that unlike a year ago Black Sea feed wheat is offered at a sizeable premium ($15/MT) to US and S American corn.