El Nino southern oscillation remains tricky. Technically, ENSO is neutral. Evolution of an El Nino requires 3 consecutive months of the Nino34 SSTA region at or above +0.5C. The Nino34 SSTA region is in the east-central/east equatorial Pacific Ocean. The 3-month qualification is close, 8 of the last 10 weeks Nio34 SSTA has been +0.5C or warmer. If the marginal warmth continues NOAA could announce an El Nino onset in August. Forecast models have trended away from El Nino toward neutral ENSO for the remainder of 2017 (after forecasting a fairly robust El Nino last March/April). As always the key to ENSO is the subsurface equatorial East Pacific which is warmer than normal close to the surface and supporting the recent surface warming which has produced an El Nino look. Interestingly, the more dominant component of the tropical/subtropical global oceans SSTA regime is the record warmth in the subtropical Pacific. The influence on global climate by this vast oceanic warmth has caused multivariate ENSO index, a measure of the atmosphere climate response to ENSO, to trend into a moderate-to-strong El Nino range during the past 1-2 months. So while no formal El Nino is expected (although its close) a global El Nino-like climate is present and is likely to cause dryness in Brazil and Australia plus Indonesia. The affects on North America climate are weaker.
Meanwhile the Madden Julian oscillation is shifting eastward across tropical Africa and into the equatorial Indian Ocean. Presence of the MJO across tropical Africa did not produce much rainfall across a severe drought region. The eastern shift of MJO to the Indian Ocean should enhance convection in the tropics and surround nations including India during early July. The shift to the IO will likely make the East Pacific and western North Atlantic tropics quiet.
Pictured: The East Pacific tropics suddenly has an El Nino look in the important Nino34 SSTA zone. The MJO is forecast to shift to the Indian Ocean in early July.