On a localized basis, corn and soybean crops went in the ground at a greatly varied pace due to heavy spring rains across parts of the Eastern Cornbelt, and cool temperatures in the far Northern regions. But on a national basis, corn and soybean planting was generally on pace with the 5 year averages. However, the season was not without it’s problems and the number of replanted acres is anecdotally high. The chart shows that soybean acres have increased in June Acreage report in 7 of the last 8 years. Based on better soybean prices and profitability just ahead of the planting season, AgResource holds a view for a modest increase in soybean acres from the March Planting intentions report to 90 million acres. Unlike last year, there was not a significant price increase through the planting season to shift pre planting decisions.
In corn, swings in acreage between the March Planting Intentions report and the June Acreage report were routinely 1-2 Mil in the early 2000’s and through the biofuel era. However, in recent years, the changes have been minimal, with the average change over the last 5 years being just 318,000 acres. Based on weak margins and cool/wet spring weather across the E Midwest, we look for a lower corn acreage figure of 89.2 Mil acres. If our estimates are realized, this would be the largest decline in March to June decline in corn acres since 2010, and also the first year since 1983 that US farmers opted to plant more soybeans than corn.
Overall it’s difficult to find a compelling reason why total inteneed US croppped acres did not get planted! ARC expects that total US cropped acres will be unchanged or slightly better than were reported back in March.
