Evening Newsletter

Content from today’s newsletter will appear here and on the homepage as it is published. To read yesterday’s Newsletter, click here (except on Monday). To read past Evening Newsletters as a PDF, click here.



Weather:

Afternoon Weather Update

Feb 22, 4:53 pm | Weather

Above Normal Rain Continues in Majority of Brazil Corn Belt: The South American forecast though early March lacks any blocking high pressure Ridge aloft, and so moisture will continue to flow across much of South America in the weeks ahead. The graphic attached displays the 7-day precip forecast, with Brazil’s safrinha Corn Belt highlighted. Cumulative totals are estimated at 2-5”; rainfall in the same period a year ago was recorded at just trace amounts to 3”.   The longer term outlook features ongoing rainfall across Central and Northern Brazil in the 8-15 day period, with a boost in precip coverage also offered to 80-90% of Argentina’s crop area. Guidance on the 16-30 day period features dryness in NE Brazil but…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Corn:

Corn Rallies (Slightly) for Second Day; New Crop Acreage Likely Out Thursday

Feb 22, 4:47 pm | Corn

If past USDA Outlook Forums are any indication, the trade will be made aware of new crop seedings sometime Thursday afternoon, with the completed balance sheet due Friday. The risk of a sub-90 Mil Acre total has allowed the market to add some risk premium, but AgResource maintains a sell-the-rally mentality without adverse weather this spring. Ethanol margins have corrected some $.20/Gal in recent days, and weekly production (also out Thurs) should continue to erode seasonally.   The South American weather forecast has extended normal/above normal rainfall across Central & Northern Brazil through the first week of March, and climate guidance lacks any evidence of drought through the next 30 days. Us exporters announced this AM that South Korea canceled…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Soy:

Soybean/Meal Futures Slip Lower Into Midweek

Feb 22, 3:45 pm | Soybeans

Overnight strength in the soybean market gave way to liquidation and technical trading. Soybeans and meal were both in the red at the close, while soyoil traded inside on short covering. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil contracts.   The market is anxiously awaiting the acreage results from the USDA’s Outlook Forum later this week, which are expected to show increased US soybean acres. The chart shows the new crop soybean/corn ratio, which finished today at 2.55:1. Since the mid-90’s, there has been just 1 other year that the ratio was this high in late February, which was in 2005. But in that year, the soybean market was…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Wheat:

US Wheat Rebounds 2-6 Cents; World Cash Market Lacks Direction

Feb 22, 4:48 pm | Wheat

US and European futures settled moderately higher today, in large part due to Egypt’s latest tender results. Simply put, major importer consumption is at least intact following the recent rally, and so overall demand is sold. However, major exporting origins have done little in the last 10 days are now offered within $5-8/MT of one another (see below) at levels comparable to $4.40-4.50, basis spot CME & KC. New crop seedings and weather is awaited.   Egypt today secured 360,000 MTs of Russian and Ukrainian origin at an average fob price of $197/MT. This is the highest price of the season (up very slightly from last week), and suggest Russian exporters don’t need to be overly aggressive in the near…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In

Hogs and Pork:

Hogs Break In Technical Trade

Feb 22, 3:22 pm | Hogs & Pork

Hog futures gapped lower at the open on Wednesday, and fell to deep losses through the day on technical liquidation and fundamental ideas that the cash market is nearing a top.    The lean hog index gained $.17 on Wednesday to $77.24, and is projected another $.41 higher for Thursday. Negotiated trade was also called $.32 lower, with good volume noted in the afternoon direct hog report.   The pork cutout dropped $4.30 on Wednesday to $80.24 as the belly market collapsed and was off near $25 from Tuesday. Wednesday’s break is signaling a top in belly prices, but the trade will look to Thursday’s Cold Storage report for confirmation.   April hogs closed under the 50 day moving average…

Not Subscribed Yet?
The content that you are trying to view requires a subscription. Please click below to subscribe, or contact us by email at sales@agresource.com and by telephone at 312-408-0045

Log In