Download The Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook for the U.S.
The midday GFS was wetter across corn and soybean areas of the Midwest U.S. in the medium-range forecasts. While the wetter trend may be correct the nature of mid-summer thunderstorms ability to produce widespread heavy rain to slow a drought trend is in-doubt. More likely is that storms that occur produce locally heavy rains in somewhat confined areas while the slow spread of the North-Central to Central Great Plains drought continues. This week Nebraska will have at least 3 days of 100+ afternoon temperatures. The heat will steadily produce drought conditions in that state. The concern of drought spreading southward toward Oklahoma remains valid. Summer still has a lot more heat to offer.
Today’s updated week 2-4 forecast identifies the Midwest U.S. likely regime…dry threats then thundershowers then dry again while areas to the west and south are more persistently dry. The hot weather is a concern. The heat puts pressure on rainfall events to be widespread which is tough to do in mid-summer otherwise the heat will increase drought risk.
The tropical cyclone season is forecast to be more active than normal but we’ll likely have to wait until well into August for that pattern change.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company week 2-4 ahead precipitation anomaly forecast.