Featured Research

Yield Changes in October

Sep 22, 3:13 pm | Corn, Soybeans

Since 1990, there has not been a strong tendency for NASS to either raise or lower the national soybean yield estimate in the October crop report. There have been 11 years that the yield was lowered by an average of 0.9 BPA, 12 years that NASS’s yield increased by an average of 1.1 BPA, and 2 years that the yield was unchanged. More recently, yield has been unchanged or higher in 8 of the last 13 years, with only minimal declines noted. However, there have been some surprising declines that have developed as crops have matured. The largest decline occurred in 2003, when both pod weights and pod counts declined in October, and continued to fall into the January Crop…

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Sep 1 US Wheat Stocks

Sep 20, 4:28 pm | Wheat

US wheat stocks are no doubt very large, but down from a year ago. AgResource breaks down the US Jun-Aug wheat balance sheet.

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Sept 1st US Soybean Stocks Estimate

Sep 19, 3:43 pm | Soybeans

The USDA’s stocks estimates for the 2016/17 crop year have been in a wide range over the last year. The peak estimate was in December at 480 Mil Bu, with estimates steadily grinding lower to the most recent forecast of 345 Mil Bu. Crush estimates have moved lower over the last year, largely due to slower meal export. However, lower crush has been more than offset by rising exports. Residual was also lowered following the March stocks report, and in recent years, declining residual has preceded an increase in the crop size in the Sep stocks report. ARC estimates a 4th quarter residual of -95 Mil Bu, with Sep 1 stocks at 341 Mil Bu, assuming no change in the…

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FSA Crop Acreage Update For September

Sep 13, 2:52 pm | Corn, Soybeans

The FSA’s monthly update of certified acres was released on Tuesday. The FSA reported that there was 87.26 million corn acres, an increase from the August update of 426,074 acres, and there was 447,348 more soybean acres for a total of 88.67 million. The 2 charts show the monthly history of the FSA count of acreage enrollment since 2011, when monthly reporting began. Generally, crop acreage has to be certified by July 15th, and acres certified after the date are subject to a late fee. Late certification also requires a field visit by the local FSA office, and the acreage can not be certified until the late fee has been paid. On average, by the September data release, 99% of…

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