Featured Research

Canadian Planting Intentions

Apr 21, 3:46 pm | Corn, Soybeans, Wheat

Canadian farmers intend to plant 1.63 Mil more Hectares than last year’s final area, with most of the expansion in oilseeds. Combined canola and soybean seeding intention were pegged by Stats Canada this AM at a record 11.9 Mil HAs, up 1.4 Mil (14%) from last year, and with limited expansion in crush capacity additional supplies will find their way to the world market. ARC does note that cool/wet weather into early May will limit seeding progress, and so weather in May is much more important, but today’s report leans a bit bearish. Canadian wheat seedings at 9.4 Mil HAs are unchanged from last year, and so are slightly higher than expected. Winter wheat seedings in E Canada are down,…

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4th Quarter US Meat Supplies

Apr 19, 1:12 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

  The USDA’s Economic Research Service on Monday offered the latest updates on estimates to 4th quarter. The USDA estimated per capita beef disappearance in the 4th quarter at 13.8 Lbs, 0.2 Lbs under both the March estimate and 2016. Net beef exports are expected to be positive, and up slightly from a year ago, while quarterly production is expected to increase less than 1% from 2016. The piece of the per capita equation is the US population, which has increased by an average of 0.8%, which this year implies an additional 2.5 million people. In the pork estimates, the USDA looks for production to be up 6% and record large, while exports estimated to be increase 7%, also to a…

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EU Wheat Supply & Demand

Apr 18, 4:52 pm | Wheat

Dryness in Western Europe and parts of the Balkan Region is becoming more concerning, as little to no rain is offered to the UK, Spain and France in the next 10 days. Wheat crop’s critical heading stage lies ahead in May and early June. The graphic below displays 30-day percent of normal rainfall, and severe dryness is noted across key parts of France and Western Germany.   Longer term maps look similar, with 60-day rainfall pegged at just 20-50% of normal in pockets of Western Europe. The wheat market hasn’t been overly concerned about EU weather, partially due to record global inventories, and massive surpluses in many other exporting countries (the US, Russia, Australia), but Europe is the one region where…

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US Soybean Crush Update

Apr 17, 1:51 pm | Soybeans

NOPA reported a member crush total of 153 Mil Bu or about 4 Mil Bu less than the average expectation. The cumulative NOPA crush rate for this year is 2% larger than a year ago at 1,072 Mil Bu. On a regional basis, the IL crush rate is now 10% over last year, and crush rates in the Southwestern states has increased 7%. Processing rates in both the Eastern and Western Midwest states are running 1% and 3% behind last year, and the IA crush total is also off 1%. With NOPA representing 94% of the US crush industry, we estimate a total US crush rate for the month of 163 Mil Bu, or 3 Mil Bu less than a…

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April WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Apr 12, 3:08 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The USDA’s April pork estimates were adjusted to reflect the data reported in the March quarterly inventory report, though production changes from March were minimal. Producers reported that they intend to keep summer farrowings similar to a year ago, with Jun-Aug intentions coming in at 99.6% of last year’s actual farrowings. Excluding the 2014 PEDs outbreak, producers have consistently increased pigs/per litter through the summer quarter by 1-2% each year.With the latest farrowing intentions data in hand, USDA analyst increased their 4th quarter pork production forecast by 45 Mil Lbs (less than 1%), to a record large 7,015 Mil Lbs. The USDA’s 4th quarter average hog price forecast was unchanged at $36-38 live ($49-51 lean), and if realized, would be a $12 year…

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Malaysian Palm Oil Update

Apr 10, 2:58 pm | Palm Oil

The monthly Malaysian palm oil report was viewed as bearish, with monthly production, exports, and stocks figures all coming in above expectations. Palm oil futures fell sharply after the report release, which in turn kept US soyoil futures underwater at the start of this week. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported March output at 1.46 MMTs, up from 1.2 MMTs last year, and also above expectations for 1.39 MMTs. March was the 4th consecutive month that production was above last year, and the 2nd month above the 5 year average. Seasonally, monthly production figures will increase into October, while a recovery in yields also looks to keep production totals well over a year ago. A similar recovery in yields can…

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2016 US Wheat Supply & Demand by Class

Apr 7, 4:35 pm | Wheat

It’s far too premature to adjust ‘17 wheat yields from trend, but following NASS’s planting intentions report, the most probable scenarios for supply and demand by class have been fine tuned. The tables above assume normal abandonment and trend yields, trend domestic consumption, and also a slight decline in export demand. Reduced export interest is forecast as, assuming normal weather and trend yield in Europe, production there is likely to rebound 8-10 MMTs, most of which will find the world export market beginning in July/August.    It’s important to note that stocks of higher protein classes HRW and HRS will be in decline in 2017, and likely subsequent years, while widespread adverse weather or even deeper cuts in acreage are…

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