Featured Research

South American Corn Supply & Demand

Mar 22, 4:31 pm | Corn

It’s time to update South American corn balance sheets. USDA/CONAB production estimates look a bit understated given weather to date.

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Price Response Following NASS’s March Reports

Mar 20, 1:37 pm | Corn, Soybeans

  There’s no real tendency for corn and soybean futures to rally or fall after the release of the March Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports. At the start of the biofuel era, when stocks were tight and markets were still adjusting to new found corn demand and strong Chinese soybean import demand, the reports tended to produce rather volatile price responses in both cash and futures prices. Price responses have been less dramatic in the last 3 years, though volatility has remained above the pre biofuel era.   In the last decade, it’s often been the old crop quarterly stocks figure that has moved markets, and new crop prices have followed the old crop trends. In 2016, with the…

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March 1st US Corn Stocks

Mar 17, 10:02 am | Corn

AgResource breaks down Dec-Feb US corn supply and demand, and compares it to the USDA’s annual forecast.

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March 1st Soybean Stocks Estimate

Mar 16, 12:14 pm | Soybeans

  AgResource estimates March 1st soybean stocks at 1,645 Mil Bu, up 114 Mil Bu (7%) from a year ago and also at a 10 year high. As reflected in the chart, total usage through the quarter is estimated 7% larger than a year ago and at an all time high. Quarterly exports are estimated to have been up 68 Mil Bu from a year ago at 68 Mil Bu, while crush is estimated at to be about 10 Mil Bu larger than a year ago. Slower soymeal export demand has weighed on soymeal basis, but the domestic soymeal market has easily absorbed the additional supply. Domestic disappearance through January was 4% (1 Mil tons) larger than last year. The…

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2016/17 US Soybean Crush Update

Mar 15, 11:38 am | Soybeans

NOPA reported a February crush rate of 143 Mil Bu, down from 146 Mil Bu last year and just under the average trade estimate that called for an unchanged crush total of 146 Mil Bu. February is the first month this year that the US crushing rate was under a year ago, but it’s also worth noting that February had 1 additional day last year. On a per day basis, the 2017 crushing rate was actual 1% larger than a year ago. On average, the NOPA crush data covers 94% of the total US crush industry, which this month implies a US crushing total of 152 Mil Bu versus 155 million a year ago. The USDA raised their forecast for…

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US Livestock Herd Update

Mar 14, 10:39 am | Cattle, Hogs & Pork, Poultry

NASS is in the process of collecting and tabulating pork producer surveys for the March inventory report that will be released at the end of the month. The December Hogs and Pigs report showed that the US hog breeding herd had grown by 1.5% from the previous year, and was the largest since 2007. Producers also indicated to the USDA that they intended to farrow 1% more sows in both the Dec-Feb and Mar-May quarters. Both the inventory data and producer intentions ran opposite of the economic signal that the market has been sending since the spring of 2016, which was “slow down”. The latest slaughter data indicates that producers may finally be paring back sow inventories, slightly. The weekly…

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March WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Mar 10, 3:13 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The March WASDE report featured adjustments to price and production forecasts for the 1st half of the year, while forecasts beyond June were unchanged from the prior report. The USDA estimates that the record large production will continue into the 3rd quarter, Jul-Sep pork output estimated to increase 5% year over year. In the price outlook, the USDA estimates a 3rd quarter average live hog price of $43-47 versus $49 last year. If realized, this would put the quarterly average at the lowest in 8 years. The CME and the USDA have been in sharp disagreement of forward hog values for many months, with deferred hog futures finding support from nearby cash strength. The CME today looks to be pricing in a…

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