Featured Research

2017 US Cotton Acreage Forecast

Feb 17, 4:56 pm |

Cotton prices are actually quite higher than a year ago, and a modest expansion in acreage is likely across the Southern Plains and Delta region.

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AgResource’s 2017 US Corn Acreage Forecast

Feb 16, 4:18 pm | Corn

AgResource estimates US corn planted area in 2017 at 92.3 Mil Acres, a bit higher than much of the trade but, down nearly 2 Mil from ‘16. The graphic at left illustrates that acreage enrolled in the CRP will be down (slightly) for a 9th consecutive year; winter wheat acreage is of course down nearly 4 Mil, and normal prevent plant acreage is pegged at 2 Mil Acres, vs. 3.4 Mil last year and 6.7 Mil in 2015. Also note that the average price of Dec corn so far in Feb rests at $3.97, vs. a final average Feb price of $3.86 last year.   The price calculated for revenue is higher, and average proven yields will also be up…

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2016/17 US Soybean Crush Update

Feb 15, 1:58 pm | Soybeans

NOPA crush data for the month of January showed a processing rate of 106.6 Mil Bu, 1.5 million over the average trade estimate, more than 10 million over a year ago, and the 3rd largest January NOPA crush figure on record. With the NOPA data on average catching 94% of the total US soybean crush, we estimate a total crush rate for the month of 171 Mil Bu. This would put the cumulative crush total for the year at 825 Mil Bu, and still on track to hit the USDA’s annual forecast of 1,930 million bushels. The chart reflects monthly estimates for the rest of the year, that are needed to reach the USDA forecast. But crush rates in every…

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2017/18 Soybean Acreage Estimates

Feb 14, 8:59 am | Soybeans

The latest cost of production estimates from the USDA’s Economic Research Service that were updated in December, project a national average per acre cost for corn of $670, with soybean cost estimated at $474/acre. The corn cost is down $2 from 2016 and the soybean cost is $2 higher. For producers that are still in the process of planning crop acres for 2017, the largest difference from a year ago is in new crop price bids. November soybeans today are $1.40/Bu higher than a year ago, while December corn is $.25/Bu higher. The chart reflects expected returns, or the cost of production less revenue assumptions based on trend yields and new crop prices in February. Note that this model shows…

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Red Meat Exports in December

Feb 8, 2:35 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

US pork exports totaled 493 Mil Lbs in December, down slightly from the all time record that was set in November, but still the 2nd largest December shipment figure on record. Quarterly exports were at 115% of a year ago while annual exports were at 104%, and the largest annual export rate in 4 years. For the year, Mexico was by far the largest destination, with 31% of total exports going South of the border. Japan was the 2nd largest destination, though compared to a year ago total exports were down 5%. The largest source of growth for 2016 was in exports to China, where 2016 exports were at 198% of the previous year and accounted for much of the…

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