Featured Research

July WASDE Livestock Price Forecasts

Jul 20, 2:44 pm | Cattle, Hogs & Pork

The July WASDE report featured pork production and price forecasts adjusted to the the June inventory data for the remainder of 2017 and through the 1st half of 2018. Minimal adjustments to quarterly production forecasts were made, with a slight increase for the 4th quarter, while the 1st quarter of 2018 was barely lowered. But production in both quarter are projected to be record large. The Oct-Dec average live hog price forecast was unchanged at $41-45, and th 1st quarter forecast was increased by $3 to $48-52. The chart plots the July WASDE 1st quarter forecast against actual prices. CME Feb/Apr hog futures adjusted to a live equivalent, with normal basis are pricing in a 1st quarter average live price…

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Plains Weather & Crop Production

Jul 18, 4:36 pm | Corn, Soybeans

Drought is expanding, and amid current forecasts calling for near complete dryness across a bulk of the Plains, ARC looks for condition ratings to fall, not rise, in the next two weeks. However, even simply accounting for plunging crop conditions across the Northern and Western Plains, substantial US yield adjustments lie in the offing. ARC notes that not that long ago the Dakotas were considered as being fringe producing states; now they account for some 10% of US corn area. Kansas, too, has seeded a record 5.3 Mil Acres in 2017. Based on weather to date, ARC’s work projects combined yield in NE, SD and ND to exist 12-13% below trend, which along with slightly higher abandonment results in combined…

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US Soybean Crush in June

Jul 17, 4:48 pm | Soybeans

NOPA reported that its membership crushed 138 Mil Bu during the month of June which was 5 Mil Bu under expectations and 7 Mil Bu less than a year ago. Based on the NOPA data, we estimate a total US soybean crush rate of 147 Mil Bu. The USDA recently lowered their estimate for the annual US soybean crush 1,900 Mil Bu, but following a disappointing June crush, the USDA’s annual forecast could still be 20-30 Mil Bu too large. Note that monthly crush totals since February have been below a year ago, but to reach the USDA’s annual forecast, July and August crush figures each need to be well over last year. Crush spreads at the CME are similar to…

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Chinese Soybean Imports In June

Jul 13, 2:24 pm | China, Soybeans

China’s preliminary trade data for the month of June was released on Thursday, showing all origin soybean imports totaling 7.69 MMTs. The June figure was inline with expectations and just above last year, but a 20% decline from the May import total. Exports from Brazil and US during the month of June indicate that the July import rate could slip below last year, and be closer to 7.5 MMTs, which if realized would put Oct-Jul import total just over 74 MMTs. In the July WASDE report the USDA increased their estimate for 2016/17 Chinese soybean imports to 91 MMTs. If our estimate for July imports is correct, August and September imports would need to average just over 8 MMTs to…

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Brazilian Crop Estimates in July

Jul 11, 4:58 pm | Brazil

  In the soybean production estimates, CONAB made very slight adjustments from the June report. Yield was unchanged, at a record large 3.36 MT/HA (50 BPA), while total area and production were increased fractionally. Yield estimates have been steadily climbing through the year, while estimates for exports and domestic crush have reluctantly followed along. The chart plots monthly stocks estimates from both the USDA and CONAB. The USDA’s July forecast had record large February 1st  stocks of 6.35 MMTs, while CONAB’s latest forecast has January 1st stocks of 5.4 MMTs. The difference of less than 1 MMTs in the course of 30 days is inconsequential to the market. But both stocks estimates indicate that Brazil has the supply available to…

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