CBOT corn futures ended deep in the red, with March losing 5 cents. Crude futures fell roughly $1/barrel, and the clear winner today was again US equity markets. There are hints of wetter weather in Argentina beyond the next 12-13 days, but ARC is highly dubious to this pattern shift. And in the meantime unwanted dryness and warming temps will remain intact across key areas of S Brazil and Argentina. A bearish outlook is not advised.
ARC also mentions that the US Gulf corn is offered at or below Argentina origin through January, and US corn export potential in Q1 ‘18 has improved following the surge in Argentine basis. Notice in the graphic that Black Sea feed wheat is still expensive (as is barley), and with funds still holding a near record large net short position, it just doesn’t pay to be short one of the world’s cheapest grains. US farmer selling has halted. Yield concern is Argentina is warranted, and this evening’s EU ensemble model maintains near complete dryness in Argentina through Dec 19th.
