CME Hog Futures Give Back Gains on Thursday: CME hog futures relaxed on Thursday, giving back some of Wednesday’s gains. October hogs had resistance above $80, while December closed just above the 100-day moving average. June hogs found support at the 100-day moving average and closed above $92.
The cash hog index was down $.09 at $85.46, and AgResource estimates a $.12 decline for Friday. This leaves the index down $1.09 for the week.
The USDA made minimal changes to the US pork supply and demand estimates. 3rd quarter production was adjusted to the current pace and increased by 25 Mil Lbs, while the 4th quarter production forecast was lowered 20 Mil Lbs. Price forecasts were unchanged for the 3rd quarter at $63 live ($85 lean) and $54 live ($73 lean) for the 4th quarter. Production forecasts for the 1st half of 2025 were unchanged but will be adjusted in October following the September Hogs and Pigs report. Price forecasts were lowered by $1 for the 1st quarter to $54 live ($73 lean) and $60 live ($81 lean) for the 2nd quarter.
4th quarter pork production is forecast to increase 5% over last year, the largest increase since 2015 and the 3rd largest production rate on record. 1st quarter production is projected to increase by less than 1% but will still be at a 4-year high.
