Hog Futures Correct Ahead of USDA Report: Hog futures turned down on reduced demand on Thursday ahead of the September Hogs and Pigs report. December hogs fell back below the 200-day moving average in early trade but were above the average at the close. June hogs uncovered good demand below $93 and were near session highs at the close.
The CME cash hog index was down $.16 on Thursday at $84.05, and AgResource estimates a $.02 gain for Friday. This leaves the index down $.30 for the week.
Hog carcass weights bottomed in August at 208 Lbs, 5 Lbs above last year’s seasonal low, and have since moved higher. The latest slaughter data for the week of Sep 14 showed an average butcher hog carcass weight of 210 Lbs, unchanged from the previous week, but 4 Lbs over last year and a record for mid-September.
The inventory report did not offer any major surprises relative to consensus estimates, and prevailing trends will resume on Friday. AgResource maintains a bearish outlook for Dec/Feb hog futures. The USDA could lower its 4th quarter production estimate, but production will still be 2-3% more than last year.
