Hogs were weaker at the open on Thursday and prices moved lower in technical trade. August was nearly $2 lower for the day, and December down just $.20 and still above $65. The hog index gained $.22 to $91.93 and projected another $.47 higher for Friday. Pork prices were weaker and the carcass value was down $.57 at $103.84, however estimated slaughter margins for this week are at $26/head.
The week’s Actual Slaughter Report, with date for the week of June 24th, showed an average barrow and gilt carcass weight of 205 Lbs, unchanged from the previous week, but 2 Lbs lighter than a year ago, and the lowest for late June since 2013. Weights should continue to work lower into mid-August, and the accelerate as new crop grain gets worked into feeding rations. Weekly kill rates remain at or near record levels, and both weights and numbers should be moving in the same direction late in the 3rd quarter.
Momentum in the cash market started to slow last week, and the market is now likely close to forging a seasonal top. We advise against chasing rallies, and continue to favor late year sales.