Thursday was a mixed day of trade in the hog market, with an early rally stalling at midday and followed by selling into the close. August was down a dime at the close, while December marked the best gain for the day. The hog index continues to grind higher in search of a top and was up $.16 at $92.75, with Friday’s projection +$.09.
Weekly pork export sales were the lowest of the year, but much of that was likely due to the very short holiday work week. The same was true for the shipment pace, which was the lightest since the first week of the year. However, the pace of export commitments remains the largest since FAS began reporting the data in 2013. Cumulative exports are 11% over a year ago, outstanding sales are down 3%, and total commitments are 7% larger than last year.
The pork cutout was down $2.15 on Thursday at $103.67, with the rib value dropping $12 and the belly value more than $4. An unchanged or lower close in the belly value on Friday would mark the first lower weekly close in the belly value since the low in late April. It’s likely that pork and cash hog prices are topping.
