Hogs were higher at the open and lower by the close, with December finding resistance near last week’s highs. Trading in October ends on Friday, and ahead of expiration, the hog index was $1.21 higher at $58.32, and projected $.79 higher for Friday.
With the September inventory data known, and another month of slaughter, stocks, and trade data available, the USDA did not make any significant changes to annual or 4th quarter production or use estimates. The only notable forecast change for the 4th quarter was the live hog price forecast, which was lowered by $6 to $38-40 ($51-54 lean).
Production forecasts for the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2018 both increased slightly from last month and are forecast at 104% of last year. Price forecast ranges were also lowered by $3, to $45-49 for Jan-Mar, and to $47-51 for Apr-Jun. The initial forecast for 3rd quarter was at a 105% of a year ago. Strong demand appears to have offered support in the near term, but large pork supplies will continue well into late 2018.
