Each third Thursday of the month the International Research Institute for Climate and Society collects all ENSO phase forecast models extending out to 9 months. The depiction of model forecasts is in 2 sets: Dynamic and Statistical models. Each set reveal a trend toward weak El Nino later in 2018. The statistical (analog) models are slightly more supportive than the dynamic models of El Nino. The onset of a potential El Nino event could be as early as late northern hemisphere summer and is likely to extend through next winter. A strong El Nino is unlikely.
Indicated: The IRI collection of dynamic/statistical Nino34 SSTA forecast models trend toward El Nino later this year.