Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company ENSO outlook for 2018 and various ENSO forecasts issued by NOAA. Consensus is that La Nina ends by March and neutral ENSO follows.
The ENSO forecast is confident the next 3-6 months (through northern hemisphere summer 2018. To estimate potential high impact climate for February, MAR/APR/MAY and JUN/JUL/AUG Climate Impact Company projects the prevailing 500 MB anomaly pattern based on the best analog years. The best analog years are from the current (past 20 years) climate pattern and for ENSO, PDO and AMO the most representative 1-2 years of current conditions and 3-month forecast. The selected analog years are 2001, 2004, 2012 and 2017.
Based on the analogs the projected upper air pattern for February 2018 in the northern hemisphere supports…
- A cool/cold West, warm Midwest to Southeast flip in the U.S.
- Northern hemisphere super arctic chill in February is across Northeast Asia.
- Cold/snowy Southwest Russia/Ukraine.
- Hot across eastern Australia and Argentina.
Based on the analogs high impact climate risk for MAR/APR/MAY…
- Potentially, a record warm spring in the U.S. – warmest anomalies Kansas to Indiana.
- Northern hemisphere chill for spring locked in Russia to northern Europe.
Based on the analogs high impact climate risk for JUN/JUL/AUG…
- Hot ridge West, cool showery trough East for U.S. summer.
- Hot southern Europe and turning hot in Russia.
Please download the full Climate Impact Company 2018 ENSO Outlook Report
