Nearly all of the growing season lies ahead for the heart of Ag Belt, but it’s begun in southern locations and for select crops. NASS has begun publishing crop progress and conditions in more detail on a state-by-state basis. There is something to be gleaned ahead of national crop ratings – due in early June – with information already available. ARC’s producer clients in the south have spoken rather highly of growing conditions to date, and planting progress this year has occurred in a much timelier fashion. As of Sunday, soybeans in LA and MS were 81-86% planted, vs. 72% in mid-May a year ago, and which rivals the pace of 2012. The soy crop in the Delta will be able to bloom well ahead of the hottest part of summer.
Corn conditions in select states as of mid-May are mixed. The graphic at left displays GD/EX ratings in LA, MS, TX and AR (top), and ratings in MO & IL (bottom). Conditions in the south range from 68-85% GD/EX, with LA’s ratings an impressive 85% GD/EX, vs. 46% on this date a year ago. Initial ratings in the Midwest, however, have been plagued by too much rain and lack of growing degree days. Ratings in IL were pegged at 42%, vs. 68% a year ago and 82% in mid-May of 2015. Ratings in MO rest at 42%, down a hefty 32% from a year ago. US corn emergence should reach 45-47% complete by this weekend, with national crop ratings to be released the following week. AgResource looks for nationwide corn conditions in late May to range between 61-65% GD/EX, vs. 72% on the same week a year ago, and this should elicit some form of weather premium relative to current prices.
And there’s additional evidence that all is not perfect across the primary Corn Belt. The US oat crop as of May 14th was pegged at 62% GD/EX, vs. 73% a year and compared to a longer term average of 68%. Year-over-year downgrades of 20%+ are noted in the Dakotas; MN’s oat crop is pegged at 72% GD/EX, vs. 80% a year ago, and even TX’s crop is rated at 30% GD/EX, vs. 52% a year ago and 61% as of mid-May in 2015.
So there’s been a noticeable dichotomy in US weather so far this spring: too much rain and a lack of heat have negatively affected early growth in the N Plains and Midwest, while conditions have been near ideal across much of the Deep South. ARC notes that the forecast maintains widespread soaking rainfall over the next 4-5 days, and has trended noticeably cooler in the last half of May. Warmer temps are desired heading into June.
