It was a mixed session for the CBOT soy complex with active oil/meal spreading noted. Soybeans closed slightly lower as funds piled into additional net soybean shorts. ARC estimates that funds are now short 93-96,000 contracts of soybeans, the largest short positon since early July. Soyoil rallied as WASDE is expected to trim its US soyoil yield based on the oil yield to date. US soyoil stocks are expected to decline 125-200 Mil pounds, while soybean stocks rise amid sagging export demand.
The chart above reflects that a 112 MMTs Brazilian and a 53 MMTs Argentine soy crop is unlikely to match or exceed last year’s record. Brazilian producers report that the growing season to date has been ok, but there are some areas that are excessively wet, while other areas in NE Brazil are turning dry.
CONAB will be out with their Brazilian soy crop estimate on Thursday AM. ARC estimates a crop of 111.6 MMTs.
Argentine farmers are likely to hold fast to soy stocks with inflation running at 30-32%. Its tough to become bearish March soybeans below $9.50.
