Download The Climate Impact Company Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Forecast for North America
The climate controllers so far this warm season affecting the North America climate is an unusually strong cool pool of ocean water in the north-central North Atlantic and stretched across the northern Pacific. In the upper atmosphere across these cool water regions are semi-permanent upper trough(s) causing a wetter regime in the East U.S. and blocking warm-to-hot/dry weather affecting the West and into the Central States from pushing eastward with consistency.
The warm SSTA pattern across the subtropical Pacific is impressive and contributing to the heat across the western half of the nation. Warm sea surface temperature anomalies off the East Coast allow occasional impressive warmth in the East, mainly the Mid-Atlantic States.
ENSO is neutral and the PDO regime is weaker while AMO is warm despite the cool pool caused by ice melt off the Greenland ice sheet into the north-central North Atlantic. The outlooks maintain a weak ENSO and PDO regime while AMO is warm.
Soil moisture correlates with mid-summer thermal regimes. Dry conditions affecting the West and Central U.S. promote anomalous heat into mid-summer while wet soils in the Gulf region and parts of the East suppress heat risk. The Mid-Atlantic States are observing a small but intense drought area centered on Maryland helping to promote anomalous heat in that region.
The outlooks call for a pattern change in August. The tropics become busy and some of that moisture is entrained into the mid-latitude upper level flow across the U.S. causing a wetter trend in the Midwest to Gulf region. Fear of widening Great Plains drought is now less likely. The super-hot weather affecting the West and occasionally the Central U.S. during early summer eases in August. The East and Southeast become very warm and humid to close summer.
Autumn is wet in the Southeast to East-Central U.S. while the northern U.S. is warmer and drier than normal. Monthly volatility is likely featuring a very warm October Northwest U.S. to Texas while November ends autumn on a cold note for the eastern half of the nation.
Winter returns this year! The East is forecast near normal with cold anomalies eastern Great Lakes and eastward. The polar vortex anchors in northeast Canada and causes above normal snow cover from the Midwest to Northeast U.S. laying a carpet for occasional incoming arctic air masses. Western North America is drier and warmer than normal this winter season.
Pictured: The Climate Impact Company precipitation outlook for August is wetter and still wet Southwest/Southeast/East-Central U.S. during autumn. The winter outlook is seasonably cold in the East and South.
