** AgResource Pre Opening Monday Market Calls: Soybeans 6-15 cents higher, corn 1-3 cents higher, with wheat steady to 2-4 cents higher.
** Monday Weather & Market Comment Discussion: CBOT opening week calls are sharply higher on the acute Argentine drought amid the ongoing dryness across the Western US Plains. There were weekend rains across Argentina with the best totals falling in far Northern Santa Fe and S/E Buenos Aires where amounts ranged from .3-3.00”. Other areas were missed. The coverage of this rain is estimated at 20-23% of the crop area. The attached map reflects rainfall percentages for the month of February (including the 9-day forecast).
Argentina is facing its driest February in decades with the shaded area reflecting key crop areas have seen just 15-55% of normal rain. This follows months of below normal rainfall.
**Feb 1-28 % of normal Rainfall:
Friday’s CoT report showed that the managed money is; short 57,000 contracts of Chi wheat (down 26,000), short 11,000 corn (down 82,000), long 43,000 soybeans (up 53,000), short 14,000 soyoil (up 13,000), and long 71,000 contracts of meal (up 19,000).
** US Plains Weather Pattern Discussion: Rains are slated to fall across the E Plains with totals of .1-1.50” with the best coverage across E Texas and E Oklahoma. The C and E Midwest will get soaked with rainfall of .5-3.75”. Unfortunately, the HRW wheat areas of the W and N Plains will be missed.
High temps will be warm with highs ranging from the 40’s to 70’s thru the weekend. There is no meaningful W Plains rain foreseen into March 6th.
** South American Weather Pattern Discussion: The US and EU weather models are in strong agreement that a continued warm/dry weather pattern will persist across Argentina for another 10-14 days. There is no evidence of a pattern change which would offer improved rains to stabilize crop yields. Also, moderate to heavy rains are forecast to fall across N and C Brazil which will continue to slow their soy harvest/winter corn seeding campaign. The attached graphic is the EU weather model’s forecast for rains over the next 10 days. We have circled the crop areas of Argentina that look to be in a dry trend into the opening days of March. In fact, all of the major weather models maintain parched Argentine weather into Mar 6th.
Temperatures this week will be warm to hot with highs ranging from the upper 80’s to lower 100’s across Argentina and the 80’s to lower 90’s across Brazil.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
