Soybeans were lower overnight, trading down into the chart gap left on Monday and selling accelerated as the day advanced. By the close, soybean prices were off 44-46 cents, with meal down $17-18/ton. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 30,000 soybean, 7,500 soymeal, and 4,500 soyoil contracts.
Soybean export sales were at expectations in old crop, and the largest of the year for new crop. New crop sales have been exceptionally slow, with cumulative sales the lowest since 2007 at 4 MMTs. However, a Chinese delegation signed framed contracts in Des Moines, IA on Wednesday for 12.53 MMTs of new crop soybeans. Net old crop soymeal sales fell to a marketing year low of just 3,743 MTs. Old crop export commitments are just above last year, and the 2nd largest on record at 10 MMTs. The USDA fractionally lowered the annual export forecast on Wednesday, but the current pace of shipments and sales is still on track to reach the USDA’s 10.8 MMT target.
A 50% retracement in occurres at $9.77 November, while the extended weather forecast shows a high pressure ridge with high temperatures in the lower 100’s to stretch across the Plains states and into NW IA and MO late next week. We are not anxious to sell the market down, with low crop ratings and uncertain Jul/Aug weather.