Friday was a quieter day of trading in the soybean market, with early selling finding support just above $9 in July, which left old crop soybeans near unchanged and new crop down 2 cents. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybean and 1,000 soymeal contracts, and bought 2,000 soyoil contracts.
Analyst survey results released on Friday showed the average pre report estimate for June 1 soybean stocks at 991 Mil Bu, which would imply a quarterly residual rate of -68 Mil Bu. Crop size, price, and many other variables can influence residual rates, making it difficult to forecast.
IN the last 15 years whenever Sep-Feb residual has been less than 170 Mil Bu, Mar-May residual has been above -30 Mil Bu. The average stocks estimate this year implies a residual of -68 Mil Bu.
The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increased their short soy position to 87,140 contracts last week. With soybeans ending 42 cents under Monday’s high, we look for steady/firm trade ahead of next Friday’s USDA reports on short covering and end user pricing.
