Soy futures traded up overnight and continued higher through the day on Thursday. Producers have been light sellers in the last week on concerns of yield and crop size, so the market is back searching for supply. At the close, soybean prices were up 13-14 cents, and more than 40 cents over last week’s low. Commodity fund traders were estimated buyers of 12,000 soybean and 4,000 contracts each in the soymeal and soyoil markets.
Old crop soybean export sales jumped to a 7 week high, and new crop sales were the largest of the year at 1.5 MMTs. Export commitments are now just over 60 MMTs or 106% of the USDA’s forecast. However cumulative shipments stand at 53.6 MMTs, and exports in the remaining 7 weeks of the year need to average 501,000 MTs/week to reach the USDA’s forecast. The USDA’s export estimate will be close, and it’s likely that 2-4 MMTs of old crop sales will be rolled into new crop.
The weather forecast maintains high temps across the Midwest into the weekend, with building heat to return next week. The W Midwest and Plains states have limited chances of rain, and we expect the market to continue to add risk premium until a change in the weather pattern is realized.
