It was a mixed and indecisive start to the week for the soybean market. Early strength tied to weather and new crop yield prospects was wiped out at midday as June crush data was under expectations. At the close, soybeans were down 3-4 cents, but holding well over last week’s low. Commodity fund traders were estimated sellers of 5,000 soybean, 2,000 soymeal, and 3,000 soyoil contracts.
NASS reported a further decline in crop condition ratings through the week, despite widespread rains last week. 61% of the crop was rated as either good or excellent, versus 62% last week and 71% a year ago. While the drought monitor suggests that drought in the Plains has lessened in recent weeks, crop ratings continue to get worse. 33% of the SD and 25% of the ND crops were rated as either poor or very poor. The 2 states collectively account for 14% of 2017 soybean acres, though abandonment looks to increase and yield continues to roll back. Note that P/VP conditions in both states tend to increase into late in the season.
The afternoon EU weather model has no rain for the Midwest in the 6-10 day forecast, and we caution against staying bearish under $10 November.
