Soybeans were higher overnight, and extended gains through the day in technical trading, with November pushing above both key trend line resistance and the 200-day moving average. December soymeal again led the complex higher and rallied from the 50-day moving average to test the 200-day moving average for the first time since late July. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 soybean and 4,000 soymeal contracts, and were falt for the day in the soyoil market.
The Commitment of Traders report confirmed that funds had finished covering their net short position in the soybean market, and started building a net long position which as of Tuesday totaled 14,000 contracts. Funds have been chopped up in the soybean trade over the last several months on variable Midwest weather. Funds still hold a significant long in soy oil, but are net short in soymeal.
Our best guess is that the US soybean yield is closer to 47-48 BPA or 2-3 under the Sep Crop Report. If correct, it’s likely that an early seasonal low was scored back in August.
