Soybeans held in a tight range through Wednesday’s trade and were down a penny at the close. Soybean market specific new was limited, though comments from both the Whitehouse and President Trump were upbeat about a possible trade agreement.
With the January Crop report finally released, the trade typically turns focus to new crop planting intentions. The soy/corn ratio has long been used as an inexact barometer to gauge whether US farmers intend to plant more soybeans or more corn. That ratio this week is at 2.38:1 vs. 2.57:1 last year.
Another indicator is the February new crop price average, used for revenue crop insurance calculations. As of today, the average is $9.58 versus $10.16 a year ago. At the same time, the new crop corn average of $4.01 is $.05 higher than in 2018. At this time, we look for soybean planting intentions of 85 Mil acres, vs. actual acres of 89 Mil in 2018.
The CBOT continues to wait on news from trade negotiations (again). However, March soybeans managed the 2nd consecutive close over the 200-day moving average, which could attract technical buying int the least half of the week. We look to sell strong China/fund related rallies.
