Download The Climate Impact Company Tropical Outlook
Pictured: The North Atlantic contains several tropical features unlikely to develop while 10 organized systems are present in the Pacific.
A tropical wave northeast of the Leeward Islands is struggling to organize beneath an upper shear axis. The tropical wave moves beyond the shear axis this weekend although additional upstream upper shear likely prevents development. A tropical wave in the central North Atlantic tropics is in a favorable area for development. However, a due west movement toward the north coast of South America later this weekend will prevent significant strengthening. Operational models indicate no tropical cyclone development over the next 10 days.
The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is generally weak and stretched out across the Pacific Ocean (phase_5, phase_6) the next 2 weeks. Implied is support for above normal tropical cyclone activity in the North Pacific but not the North Atlantic. There are 10 tropical features across the tropical Pacific requiring monitoring.
