Summary: The lineup of ships waiting or scheduled to load U.S. corn is estimated to 380,000 MT (15 MBU). That is down 35% from the previous week. Monday’s export inspections could be 1.10 MMT (43 MBU). That would be down 7% from the previous week. There were 17 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN). That’s down 2 from the previous week. June Census exports could be 4.20 MMT (165 MBU). Low exports from Arg/Brz/Ukr (ABU) is expected to keep US corn elevated over the next few weeks.
As of June 08, there were 380,000 MT identified in the US vessel lineup that were scheduled to load corn. That is down 35% from the previous week (see chart below). A year ago, the lineup was 758,000 MT.
There were 17 ships in the lineup for which there was no tonnage, destination, or commodity cargo noted (TBN). This is up 1 from the previous week. The more vessels that are listed as “TBN”, the more difficult it is to accurately estimate the export lineup for corn. A year ago, there were 12 vessels TBN.
We can document 825,000 MT of corn were shipped last week. We can account for the cargo and destinations for all but 3 of the vessels that were in last week’s lineup but not in this week’s. Therefore, we have added 120,000 MT to set the upper end of the range at 945,000 MT. However, we expect “actual” inspections to be above the range or about 1.10 MMT. A year ago, inspections were 1.22 MMT. There was 1 vessel (70,000 MT) that departed for China (see chart below). There is NO vessel in the lineup that is destined for China. There may be other vessels that departed or are destined for China which are listed as unknown.