Summary: US ethanol production was down 2.7% this past week. Ethanol stocks declined 1.6% . Gasoline consumption was down and was 5% below what it was in 2019. Futures-based ethanol producer margins on Aug 09 were $0.94/gln, up $0.085 from the previous week. Two weeks ago saw the highest ethanol margins have been since December 2016. Blender margins were 1.50 cents/gln, down 0.40 cents from the previous week. EU ethanol crush margins hit the lowest ever level on Aug. 3 (records started in July 2013). European natural gas prices set all-time highs and ethanol prices dropped 5% since July. Brazil’s President Bolsonaro will sign a provisional measure (valid for a period of time without approval by the National Congress) for the direct sale of ethanol from the mills to the gas stations this Wednesday. Don’t know yet the sources for the ethanol will be on this measure… maybe just for sugarcane.
US ethanol production, through the week ending last Friday, totaled 290 Mil Gal, down 8 Mil from last week. Right at the pace needed to meet USDA’s projection for corn grind.
Ethanol stocks are 936 Mil Gals, down 15 Mil Gal from last week, up 14% from a year ago but down 7% from 2019.
Gasoline consumption was 9.43 Mil Bbls per day vs 9.78 Mil the previous week, and down 5% from 2019.
Crude oil stocks are 439 Mil Bbls, unchanged from the previous week, down 15% from last year but unchanged from 2019.
The futures-based ethanol crush margin is displayed below.
The futures-based blenders’ margin is displayed below.