NOPA reported that it’s membership processed 149 Mil Bu of soybeans during the month of May, a larger than average 10 Mil Bu increase from April, and 6 Mil Bu over expectations. With NOPA crush data typically reflecting ~94% of the total US soybean crush, NASS is expected to report a total May soybean crush rate around 159 Mil Bu in the July Fats and Oils report. The USDA has lowered their annual soybean crush estimate in the last 2 WASDE reports, and a further reduction could again be printed in the July WASDE. Not in the chart that monthly crush rates have been below a year ago since February, but to reach the USDA’s 1,910 Mil Bu forecast Jun-Aug soybean crush needs to be 17 Mil Bu (4%) larger than a year ago. A 10-15 Mil Bu reduction in the forecast is expected, but should be more than offset by an even larger export figure.
In the soy product data, NOPA reported that monthly meal and oil yields were up slightly from April, and monthly yields on both products were the highest of the year. Despite the larger than expected crush soyoil, soyoil stocks were reported right at expectations 1.749 Bil Lbs. Soyoil yields have seasonally increased from the harvest lows and reached a high for this year of 11.74 Lbs/Bu. The USDA does not often change their estimate for soyoil yields, and the current forecast of 11.6 Lbs has been maintained since January. The chart shows the relationship between NOPA’s Oct-May soyoil yield and the annual US soyoil yield. The relationship is far from perfect, but shows that the USDA’s current forecast is right inline with expectations. Overall, the crush report is viewed as supportive against market expectations, but confirms that the USDA is likely overestimating this year’s annual crush demand.