Our point estimate for next week’s export inspections is 1.60 MMT (59 Mil Bu). If this is correct, that would be down 175,000 MT (10%) from last week. In addition, this week’s ship lineup is 2.057 MMT. That’s down 21% from last week and below last year’s 2.373 MMT. There were 5 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN). That is 2 less than last week and less than last year’s 24 vessels. With cargoes and destinations NOT identified for just 5 vessels , it is somewhat easier to estimate how many ships will be loading soybeans. Several large daily sales of soybeans to be China have been reported in recent days which we thought might signal that the pace of exports may pick up in coming weeks does not seem supported by the drop in the lineup this week.
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The table below shows the total tonnage of vessels waiting to load soybeans over the past four months. Also shown is USDA ‘s soybean export inspections for each week.
| Soybean Lineup & Inspections | ||||
| AgRes | ||||
| Ship | Vessels | Inspect | ||
| Date | Lineup | TBN | Estimate | Inspect |
| (MMT) | (MMT) | (MMT) | ||
| 7-Sep | 0.831 | 25 | 0.850 | 1.106 |
| 14-Sep | 1.726 | 21 | 0.950 | 0.931 |
| 21-Sep | 2.221 | 24 | 1.100 | 1.037 |
| 28-Sep | 3.618 | 19 | 0.900 | 0.897 |
| 5-Oct | 3.935 | 25 | 1.400 | 1.490 |
| 12-Oct | 3.881 | 30 | 1.450 | 1.786 |
| 19-Oct | 4.366 | 1 | 2.500 | 2.586 |
| 26-Oct | 4.009 | 7 | 2.250 | 2.528 |
| 2-Nov | 3.512 | 4 | 2.400 | 2.493 |
| 9-Nov | 3.080 | 5 | 2.250 | 2.185 |
| 16-Nov | 3.073 | 6 | 1.900 | 2.276 |
| 22-Nov | 2.516 | 14 | 1.500 | 1.723 |
| 30-Nov | 1.936 | 12 | 2.200 | 1.803 |
| 7-Dec | 1.693 | 21 | 1.500 | 1.233 |
| 14-Dec | 2.611 | 7 | 1.500 | 1.775 |
| 21-Dec | 2.057 | 5 | 1.600 | |
As of Dec 21 there were 2.057 MMT identified in the lineup as scheduled to load soybeans. That is down 10% from last week’s lineup (see chart below). Also, there was were 5 ships in the lineup for which there was no tonnage, destination, or commodity cargo noted. This is down 2 from last week. This is a relatively small number of ships that are “un-assigned” for this time of year. Last year the “un-assigned” vessel count was 24 ships.
The chart below plots the 2017/18 ship lineup to last year’s.
The chart below plots the 2017/18 number of vessels TBN to last year’s. There were 5 vessels that were TBN. Last year, at this time there were 24 vessels that were TBN.
We estimate that 1.375 MMT of soybeans were shipped last week. We can account for the cargo and destination of all but 3 vessels that were in last week’s lineup but not in this week’s. In addition, we don’t know the quantity of soybeans that were loaded in many vessels with split cargoes. Therefore, we have added another 210,000 MT to the “known” soybeans shipments made last week. That brings the upper end of the range of our estimates to 1,585,000 MT. We believe that inspections will come in above the high end of this range, …, 1.600 MMT. Last week’s inspections were 1.775 MMT and last year’s inspections were 1.703 MMT.
The chart below shows that, on average, weekly export inspections tend to fall after peaking in November.
