US wheat futures fell 5-12 cents, with CME contracts leading the way. EU futures followed, and overall the wheat market following summer row crops following improvement in the moisture outlook offered to the Central & Eastern Midwest. US winter wheat crop conditions improved 1% to 50% GD/EX, but spring wheat ratings plunged amid a complete lack of precip and record breaking temps. Some rain will fall across the Dakotas in the next 72 hours, but the HRS balance sheet’s issues are worsening with 2017/18 stocks likely below 100 Mil Bu!
Spring wheat ratings fell 10 points to 45% GD/EX, the lowest for this particularly week since 1988! 57% of SD’s crop is rated as poor/very poor. Our work suggests a national HRS yield of 36-38 BPA, which could push Minn futures above $7.00 on the need for demand rationing. 37% of the crop is headed in SD, and so forthcoming moisture is not a crop savior. The next 36 hours offers the only chance of N Plains rain for the next 2 weeks.
Conditions are spotty in W Europe, Ukrainian dryness looks to intensify amid dry forecasts. Record global wheat carryover and will act as a drag on rallies. Moisture deficits are likely to grow, not shrink, across the Dakotas in the next few weeks. The world wheat market has bottomed and an uptrend is in the offing.
KS wheat yields are highly variable as the harvest begins in earnest across the SW.
